Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32827484›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020

Cost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis.

Florian M Marx, Ted Cohen, Nicolas A Menzies, Joshua A Salomon, Grant Theron, Reza Yaesoubi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Florian M MarxDSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa. Electronic address: fmarx@sun.ac.za.
Ted CohenDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Nicolas A MenziesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Joshua A SalomonDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Grant TheronDSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa; Division of Molecular Biology and Human Genetics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Reza YaesoubiDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

Funding

Evaluating health and economic effects of targeted strategies in TB/HIVR01AI112438 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI COHEN, THEODORE H, SALOMON, JOSHUA A · 2014 to 2017
$2.4M
International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data (ICI3D Program)R25GM102149 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI PULLIAM, JULIET RC, WELTE, ALEX · 2012 to 2015
$696k
Improving the control of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis through targeted screening and use of novel anti-tuberculosis drugsK01AI119603 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI YAESOUBI, REZA · 2016 to 2019
$518k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI119603NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI112438NIGMS NIH HHS R25 GM102149
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn settings of high tuberculosis incidence, previously treated individuals remain at high risk of recurrent tuberculosis and contribute substantially to overall disease burden. Whether tuberculosis case finding and preventive interventions among previously treated people are cost-effective has not been established. We aimed to estimate costs and health benefits of annual post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary preventive therapy for tuberculosis in a tuberculosis-endemic setting.

methodsWe developed a transmission-dynamic mathematical model and calibrated it to data from two high-incidence communities of approximately 40 000 people in suburban Cape Town, South Africa. We used the model to estimate overall cost and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with annual follow-up examinations and secondary isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), alone and in combination, among individuals completing tuberculosis treatment. We investigated scenarios under which these interventions were restricted to the first year after treatment completion, or extended indefinitely. For each intervention scenario, we projected health system costs and DALYs averted with respect to the current status quo of tuberculosis control. All estimates represent mean values derived from 1000 epidemic trajectories simulated over a 10-year period (2019-28), with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values.

findingsWe estimated that a single follow-up examination at the end of the first year after treatment completion combined with 12 months of secondary IPT would avert 2472 DALYs (95% UI -888 to 7801) over a 10-year period and is expected to be cost-saving compared with current control efforts. Sustained annual follow-up and continuous secondary IPT beyond the first year after treatment would avert an additional 1179 DALYs (-1769 to 4377) over 10 years at an expected additional cost of US$18·2 per DALY averted. Strategies of follow-up without secondary IPT were dominated (ie, expected to result in lower health impact at higher costs) by strategies that included secondary IPT.

interpretationIn this high-incidence setting, post-treatment follow-up and secondary preventive therapy can accelerate declines in tuberculosis incidence and potentially save resources for tuberculosis control. Empirical trials to assess the feasibility of these interventions in settings most severely affected by tuberculosis are needed.

fundingNational Institutes of Health, Günther Labes Foundation, Oskar Helene Heim Foundation.

Indexed as

AftercareCost-Benefit AnalysisHumansIncidenceModels, TheoreticalSecondary PreventionSouth AfricaTuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID32827484
PMCPMC7549318

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.