Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32821854›Full record

ReviewNPJ digital medicine2020

Predictably unequal: understanding and addressing concerns that algorithmic clinical prediction may increase health disparities.

Jessica K Paulus, David M Kent

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in NPJ digital medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 129 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
129citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

129 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  3. AI in Medical Questionnaires: Scoping ReviewJournal of medical Internet research · 2025
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  11. Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning Risk Prediction Models for Advanced Breast Cancer.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  12. Explainability in context: calibrating appropriate trust and reliance in artificial intelligence.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2026
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69 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Jessica K PaulusPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA USA.
David M KentPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9205-5070

Funding

Tufts Clinical and Translational Science Institute (Pilot Supplement)UL1TR002544 · NCATS · TUFTS UNIVERSITY BOSTON · PI SELKER, HARRY P. · 2018 to 2022
$50.2M
CTSA Graduate ProgramTL1TR002546 · NCATS · TUFTS UNIVERSITY BOSTON · PI KENT, DAVID M · 2018 to 2022
$4.2M
NCATS NIH HHS TL1 TR002546NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002544
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The machine learning community has become alert to the ways that predictive algorithms can inadvertently introduce unfairness in decision-making. Herein, we discuss how concepts of algorithmic fairness might apply in healthcare, where predictive algorithms are being increasingly used to support decision-making. Central to our discussion is the distinction between algorithmic fairness and algorithmic bias. Fairness concerns apply specifically when algorithms are used to support polar decisions (i.e., where one pole of prediction leads to decisions that are generally more desired than the other), such as when predictions are used to allocate scarce health care resources to a group of patients that could all benefit. We review different fairness criteria and demonstrate their mutual incompatibility. Even when models are used to balance benefits-harms to make optimal decisions for individuals (i.e., for non-polar decisions)-and fairness concerns are not germane-model, data or sampling issues can lead to biased predictions that support decisions that are differentially harmful/beneficial across groups. We review these potential sources of bias, and also discuss ways to diagnose and remedy algorithmic bias. We note that remedies for algorithmic fairness may be more problematic, since we lack agreed upon definitions of fairness. Finally, we propose a provisional framework for the evaluation of clinical prediction models offered for further elaboration and refinement. Given the proliferation of prediction models used to guide clinical decisions, developing consensus for how these concerns can be addressed should be prioritized.

Indexed as

Health careMedical research

Identifiers

PMID32821854
PMCPMC7393367

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.