ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2020
The operational impact of deploying SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in countries of the WHO African Region.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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12 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWhen available, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be deployed to countries with limited immunization systems.
methodsWe conducted an immunization capacity assessment of a simulated WHO African Region country using region-specific data on immunization, population, healthcare workers (HCWs), vaccine cold storage capacity (quartile values for national and subnational levels), and characteristics of influenza vaccines to represent future SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. We calculated monthly increases in vaccine doses, doses per vaccinator, and cold storage volumes for four-month SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns targeting risk groups compared to routine immunization baselines.
findingsAdministering SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to risk groups would increase total monthly doses by 27.0% for ≥65 years, 91.7% for chronic diseases patients, and 1.1% for HCWs. Assuming median nurse density estimates adjusted for absenteeism and proportion providing immunization services, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns would increase total monthly doses per vaccinator by 29.3% for ≥65 years, 99.6% for chronic diseases patients, and 1.2% for HCWs. When we applied quartiles of actual African Region country vaccine storage capacity, routine immunization vaccine volumes exceeded national-level storage capacity for at least 75% of countries, but subnational levels had sufficient storage capacity for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for at least 75% of countries.
interpretationIn the WHO African Region, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns would substantially increase doses per vaccinator and cold chain capacity requirements over routine immunization baselines. Pandemic vaccination campaigns would add volume to national-level stores already at their limits, but sufficient capacity exists at subnational levels. Immediate attention to strengthening immunization systems is essential to support pandemic responses.
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