ArticlePloS one2020
Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Targeted epidemic mitigation through age-specific dose-response recovery modeling.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- Illness Experiences of Brazilian People Who Were Hospitalized Due to COVID-19 and Faced Long COVID Repercussions in Their Daily Life: A Constructivist Grounded Theory Study.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Symptoms and risk factors for long COVID in Tunisian population.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Association between long COVID, functional activity, and health-related quality of life in older adults.BMC geriatrics · 2023Article
- Epidemiology, clinical characteristics and risk factors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Casablanca.Access microbiology · 2023Article
- SARS-CoV-2 indoor environment contamination with epidemiological and experimental investigations.Indoor air · 2022Article
- Knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 Epitopes and Population HLA Types Is Important in the Design of COVID-19 Vaccines.Vaccines · 2022Review
- Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Analyzing inherent biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and serological epidemiologic metrics.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Observational
- mRNA expression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor in the lung tissue of Wistar rats according to age.Veterinary world · 2022Article
- Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar's experience.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- COVID-19 risk score as a public health tool to guide targeted testing: A demonstration study in Qatar.PloS one · 2022Article
- Knowledge, preparedness, and attitude towards COVID-19 among health profession students in Sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-sectional survey.IJID regions · 2021Article
- Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
- Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020.Global epidemiology · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates in Qatar.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Increasing impact of COVID-19 on young adults: evidence from hospitalisations in Brazil.Public health · 2021Article
- How severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 aerosol propagates through the age-specific upper airways.Physics of fluids (Woodbury, N.Y. : 1994) · 2021Article
- Assessing Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka, Japan: A Modeling Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million. Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age: 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the final cumulative infection incidence was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9). Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.
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