ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Extreme heat disproportionately increases severe road traffic crashes in high conflict settings and among vulnerable road users in California.Discover cities · 2026Article
- Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Inequitable distribution of risks associated with occupational heat exposure driven by trade.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Concurrent Heat and Air Pollution Exposures among People Experiencing Homelessness.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Article
- Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Observational
- Projecting future labor losses due to heat stress in China under climate change scenarios.Science bulletin · 2023Article
- Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Spatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The inequality labor loss risk from future urban warming and adaptation strategies.Nature communications · 2022Article
- A microscale three-dimensional model of urban outdoor thermal exposure (TUF-Pedestrian).International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Global urban population exposure to extreme heat.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., "population heat exposure") would increase by a factor of 12.7-29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end-of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3-2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHG-induced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.