ArticleEpidemiology and infection2020
Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Incidence in Henan, China: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a forecasting study based on mathematical models.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Prediction of influenza outbreaks in Fuzhou, China: comparative analysis of forecasting models.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Application of an ARFIMA Model to Estimate Hepatitis C Epidemics in Henan, China.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Viral Conjunctivitis.Viruses · 2023Review
- Prediction of outpatients with conjunctivitis in Xinjiang based on LSTM and GRU models.PloS one · 2023Article
- Extreme temperature increases the risk of stillbirth in the third trimester of pregnancy.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Epidemiological Investigation and Risk Factor Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in Huangshi Port District, Huangshi City.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is a highly contagious eye disease, the prediction of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is very important to prevent and grasp its development trend. We use the exponential smoothing model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to analyse and predict. The monthly incidence data from 2004 to 2017 were used to fit two models, the actual incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in 2018 was used to validate the model. Finally, the prediction effect of exponential smoothing is best, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error were 0.0152 and 0.1871, respectively. In addition, the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing had a seasonal trend characteristic, with the peak period from June to September each year.
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