ArticlePharmacoEconomics2020
Simulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Patient-level simulation models in cancer care: a systematic review.Frontiers in public health · 2025Pooled it
- Pharmacological treatment patterns in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis in the Netherlands: a real-world data analysis.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Four Aspects Affecting Health Economic Decision Models and Their Validation.PharmacoEconomics · 2022Article
- Prediction of mortality in metastatic colorectal cancer in a real-life population: a multicenter explorative analysis.BMC cancer · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
17 authors at 12 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSimulation models utilizing real-world data have potential to optimize treatment sequencing strategies for specific patient subpopulations, including when conducting clinical trials is not feasible. We aimed to develop a simulation model to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival for first-line doublet chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for specific subgroups of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on registry data.
methodsData from 867 patients were used to develop two survival models and one logistic regression model that populated a discrete event simulation (DES). Discrimination and calibration were used for internal validation of these models separately and predicted and observed medians and Kaplan-Meier plots were compared for the integrated DES. Bootstrapping was performed to correct for optimism in the internal validation and to generate correlated sets of model parameters for use in a probabilistic analysis to reflect parameter uncertainty.
resultsThe survival models showed good calibration based on the regression slopes and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics at 1 and 2 years, but not for short-term predictions at 0.5 years. Modified C-statistics indicated acceptable discrimination. The simulation estimated that median first-line PFS (95% confidence interval) of 219 (25%) patients could be improved from 175 days (156-199) to 269 days (246-294) if treatment would be targeted based on the highest expected PFS.
conclusionsExtensive internal validation showed that DES accurately estimated the outcomes of treatment combination strategies for specific subpopulations, with outcomes suggesting treatment could be optimized. Although results based on real-world data are informative, they cannot replace randomized trials.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.