ArticleJournal of infection and public health2020
Real-time naive case fatality rates can reflect timeliness of case confirmation during pandemics.
Article in Journal of infection and public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.
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