ArticlePharmacoEconomics2020
Estimating Transition Probabilities from Published Evidence: A Tutorial for Decision Modelers.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 56 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
56 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Cost-Effectiveness of Electronic Patient-Reported Outcome Measure Interventions in Cancer: Systematic Review and Parameter Extraction for Economic Modeling.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Pooled it
- Decision-Analytical Modelling of Medicines in the Middle East: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluation Studies.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Pooled it
- Conceptualising Health Economic Models Using a Graph Retrieval-Augmented, Agentic AI Framework with Human-in-the-Loop Validation: Proof-of-Concept Study.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Article
- More Guidance Needed in Approaches to Calculate Transition Probabilities in Health Economic Decision Models: An External Assessment Group Perspective.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of oral food challenge in managing cow's milk allergy under the Brazilian Public Health perspective.Jornal de pediatria · 2026Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacologic Therapies for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis With Significant Fibrosis in the United States.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Cost-Utility Analysis of Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide Monoclonal Antibodies for Patients with Episodic Migraine Headache in the USA.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Economic evaluation of added neoadjuvant cemiplimab to upfront wide local excision for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.JID innovations : skin science from molecules to population health · 2026Article
- Development and Validation of a Markov Microsimulation Model for the Economic Evaluation of Methamphetamine-Associated Heart Failure in the United States.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Ensuring Epidemiological Consistency in Risk-Stratified Cancer Screening Models: A Novel Approach Based on Flemish Breast Cancer Screening.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Article
- Lung Cancer Screening in a Population from Northeast Italy Exposed to Both Asbestos and Smoking: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Cost-utility analysis of cerebrospinal fluid versus blood biomarkers for early detection of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in Thailand: a modeling study.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Reporting aged care quality data monthly, quarterly, or annually? A cross-sectional study of 349 613 residents and 2803 long-term care facilities.International journal for quality in health care : journal of the International Society for Quality in Health Care · 2026Article
- Paclitaxel-Coated Balloon Dilation for Adults With Recurrent Bulbar Urethral Stricture: A Health Technology Assessment.Ontario health technology assessment series · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis based on two models of sacituzumab tirumotecan versus platinum-based chemotherapy as second-line treatment in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Progressive health states and transition probabilities in pediatric dental caries: a systematic review of current evidence and research gaps.Frontiers in oral health · 2026Review
- Cost-effectiveness of inclisiran in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease from Chinese healthcare perspective.PloS one · 2026Article
- Cost-utility analysis of school-based depression prevention interventions for Thai adolescents with subsyndromal depression.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
- Multiple myeloma: What is the most cost-effective imaging strategy for initial detection of bone lesions?Skeletal radiology · 2025Article
- The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ: development, validation, and estimated outcomes of the SimDCIS model.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This tutorial presents practical guidance on transforming various types of information published in journals, or available online from government and other sources, into transition probabilities for use in state-transition models, including cost-effectiveness models. Much, but not all, of the guidance has been previously published in peer-reviewed journals. Our purpose is to collect it in one location to serve as a stand-alone resource for decision modelers who draw most or all of their information from the published literature. Our focus is on the technical aspects of manipulating data to derive transition probabilities. We explain how to derive model transition probabilities from the following types of statistics: relative risks, odds, odds ratios, and rates. We then review the well-known approach for converting probabilities to match the model's cycle length when there are two health-state transitions and how to handle the case of three or more health-state transitions, for which the two-state approach is not appropriate. Other topics discussed include transition probabilities for population subgroups, issues to keep in mind when using data from different sources in the derivation process, and sensitivity analyses, including the use of sensitivity analysis to allocate analyst effort in refining transition probabilities and ways to handle sources of uncertainty that are not routinely formalized in models. The paper concludes with recommendations to help modelers make the best use of the published literature.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.