Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32796184›Full record

ArticleCritical care medicine2020

The Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Bacteremia and Fungemia in Hospitalized Patients Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Sivasubramanium V Bhavani, Zachary Lonjers, Kyle A Carey, Majid Afshar, Emily R Gilbert, Nirav S Shah, Elbert S Huang, Matthew M Churpek

Open access · greenAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Critical care medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 25% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Sivasubramanium V BhavaniDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Zachary LonjersDepartment of Medicine, Northshore Hospital, Chicago, IL.
Kyle A CareyDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Majid AfsharDepartment of Medicine, Loyola University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Emily R GilbertDepartment of Medicine, Loyola University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Nirav S ShahDepartment of Medicine, Northshore Hospital, Chicago, IL.
Elbert S HuangDepartment of Medicine, University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
Matthew M ChurpekDepartment of Medicine, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI.
University of Chicago Medical Center · USLoyola University Medical Center · USUniversity of Wisconsin–Madison · US

Funding

RESEARCH TRAINING IN RESPIRATORY BIOLOGYT32HL007605 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI Yun Fang, Gokhan M. Mutlu · 1985 to 2026
$18.1M
Research Design, Data, and Analytics CoreP30DK092949 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI MONICA E PEEK · 2011 to 2026
$10.0M
Sepsis Early Prediction and Subphenotype Illumination Study (SEPSIS)R01GM123193 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI CHURPEK, MATTHEW MICHAEL · 2017 to 2021
$1.9M
Research and Mentorship in Medical Decision Making in DiabetesK24DK105340 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI HUANG, ELBERT S. · 2015 to 2019
$884k
Research and Mentorship in Medical Decision Making for Chronic Diseases of Older AdultsK24AG069080 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI HUANG, ELBERT S. · 2020 to 2024
$583k
An Early Real-Time Electronic Health Record Risk Algorithm for the Prevention and Treatment of Acute Kidney Injury: A Randomized Trial of an Early Standardized, Personalized Nephrology InterventionR21DK113420 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO · PI KOYNER, JAY L · 2018 to 2019
$446k
NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007605NIA NIH HHS K24 AG069080NIDDK NIH HHS K24 DK105340NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK092949NIDDK NIH HHS R21 DK113420NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM123193
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesBacteremia and fungemia can cause life-threatening illness with high mortality rates, which increase with delays in antimicrobial therapy. The objective of this study is to develop machine learning models to predict blood culture results at the time of the blood culture order using routine data in the electronic health record.

designRetrospective analysis of a large, multicenter inpatient data.

settingTwo academic tertiary medical centers between the years 2007 and 2018. SUBJECTS: All hospitalized patients who received a blood culture during hospitalization.

interventionsThe dataset was partitioned temporally into development and validation cohorts: the logistic regression and gradient boosting machine models were trained on the earliest 80% of hospital admissions and validated on the most recent 20%. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN

resultsThere were 252,569 blood culture days-defined as nonoverlapping 24-hour periods in which one or more blood cultures were ordered. In the validation cohort, there were 50,514 blood culture days, with 3,762 cases of bacteremia (7.5%) and 370 cases of fungemia (0.7%). The gradient boosting machine model for bacteremia had significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.78 [95% CI 0.77-0.78]) than the logistic regression model (0.73 [0.72-0.74]) (p < 0.001). The model identified a high-risk group with over 30 times the occurrence rate of bacteremia in the low-risk group (27.4% vs 0.9%; p < 0.001). Using the low-risk cut-off, the model identifies bacteremia with 98.7% sensitivity. The gradient boosting machine model for fungemia had high discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.88 [95% CI 0.86-0.90]). The high-risk fungemia group had 252 fungemic cultures compared with one fungemic culture in the low-risk group (5.0% vs 0.02%; p < 0.001). Further, the high-risk group had a mortality rate 60 times higher than the low-risk group (28.2% vs 0.4%; p < 0.001).

conclusionsOur novel models identified patients at low and high-risk for bacteremia and fungemia using routinely collected electronic health record data. Further research is needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and impact of model implementation in clinical practice.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAgedBacteremiaBlood CultureElectronic Health RecordsFemaleFungemiaHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID32796184
PMCPMC7554143
OpenAlexW3049083059

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.