Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32791206›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020

Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020.

Fernando De la Hoz-Restrepo, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Juan Fernando De la Hoz-Gomez, Alejandro De la Hoz, Luz Gómez Del Corral, Nelson Alvis-Guzmán

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The role of mortality surveillance in pandemic preparedness and response.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Dynamical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic: Estimation from cases in Colombia.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Benchmarking of public health surveillance of COVID-19 in Colombia: First semesterBiomedica : revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud · 2020
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Fernando De la Hoz-RestrepoDepartment of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 10 No. 93-51 apto 505, Bogotá, DC, Colombia.
Nelson J Alvis-ZakzukDepartment of Economic Sciences, Universidad de la Costa - CUC, Calle 58 No. 55-66, Barranquilla, Colombia; Department of Health Technology Assessment, ALZAK Foundation, Crespo Calle 67 No. 5-44 edificio Costa de Marfil 101, Cartagena, Colombia. Electronic address: nalvis1@cuc.edu.co.
Juan Fernando De la Hoz-GomezBioinformatics Interdepartmental Program, University of California Los Angeles, UCLA, 621 Charles E Young Dr S, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA.
Alejandro De la HozGrupo de Investigación en Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Universitario San Ignacio, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Carrera 7 No. 40-62, Bogotá, DC, Colombia.
Luz Gómez Del CorralIndependent Scientist.
Nelson Alvis-GuzmánDepartment of Health Technology Assessment, ALZAK Foundation, Crespo Calle 67 No. 5-44 edificio Costa de Marfil 101, Cartagena, Colombia; Department of Economic Sciences, Universidad de Cartagena, Avenida del Consulado, Calle 30 No. 39 B-192, Cartagena, Colombia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundColombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the government then opened many commercial activities, which was followed by an increase in cases and deaths. This paper presents a critical analysis of the Colombian surveillance data in order to identify strengths and pitfalls of the control measures.

methodsA descriptive analysis of PCR-confirmed cases between March and July 25 was performed. Data were described according to the level of measurement. Incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 were estimated by age, sex, and geographical area. Sampling rates for suspected cases were estimated by geographical area, and the potential for case underestimation was assessed using sampling differences.

resultsBy July 25, Colombia (population 50 372 424) had reported 240 745 cases and 8269 deaths (case fatality rate of 3.4%). A total of 1 370 271 samples had been analyzed (27 405 samples per million people), with a positivity rate of 17%. Sampling rates per million varied by region from 2664 to 158 681 per million, and consequently the incidence and mortality rates also varied. Due to geographical variations in surveillance capacity, Colombia may have overlooked up to 82% of the actual cases.

conclusionColombia has a lower case and mortality incidence compared to other South American countries. This may be an effect of the lockdown, but may also be attributed, to some extent, to geographical differences in surveillance capacity. Indigenous populations with little health infrastructure have been hit the hardest.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBetacoronavirusChildChild, PreschoolColombiaCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19FemaleHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMiddle AgedColombiaCOVID-19EpidemiologyLockdownPandemicSARS-Cov-2

Identifiers

PMID32791206
PMCPMC7417900

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.