Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32788039›Full record

ArticleeLife2020

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.

David J Price, Freya M Shearer, Michael T Meehan, Emma McBryde, Robert Moss, Nick Golding, Eamon J Conway, Peter Dawson, Deborah Cromer, James Wood and 3 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
3.1field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 102 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

David J Price *Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0076-3123
Freya M Shearer *Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9600-3473
Michael T MeehanAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
Emma McBrydeAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
Robert MossCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Nick GoldingTelethon Kids Institute and Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
Eamon J ConwayVictorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.
Peter DawsonDefence Science and Technology, Department of Defence, Canberra, Australia.
Deborah CromerKirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
James WoodSchool of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Sam AbbottCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Jodie McVernonCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
James M McCawCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2452-3098
The Royal Melbourne Hospital · AUAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine · AUThe University of Melbourne · AUUNSW Sydney · AULondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBThe Kids Research Institute Australia · AU

Funding

Department of Health, Australian Government NA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusPandemicsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionAustraliaChildChild, PreschoolCommunicable Disease ControlCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19FemaleForecastingGeography, MedicalcoronavirusCOVID-19epidemiologyglobal healthpandemic responsevirus

Identifiers

PMID32788039
PMCPMC7449695
OpenAlexW3048715833

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.