Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32787675›Full record

SynthesisJournal of the American Heart Association2020

Clinical Predictive Models of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: A Survey of the Current Science and Analysis of Model Performances.

Richard T Carrick, Jinny G Park, Hannah L McGinnes, Christine Lundquist, Kristen D Brown, W Adam Janes, Benjamin S Wessler, David M Kent

Open access · goldAbstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
7.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 54 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Richard T CarrickPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Jinny G ParkPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Hannah L McGinnesPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Christine LundquistPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Kristen D BrownPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
W Adam JanesPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Benjamin S WesslerPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
David M KentPredictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies Tufts Medical Center Boston MA.
Tufts Medical Center · US

Funding

Palliative Care for High-Risk TAVR Patients: The Impact of MultimorbidityK23AG055667 · NIA · TUFTS MEDICAL CENTER · PI WESSLER, BENJAMIN SETH · 2018 to 2022
$948k
Improving Care for Patients with Aortic Stenosis and MultimorbidityR03AG056447 · NIA · TUFTS MEDICAL CENTER · PI WESSLER, BENJAMIN SETH · 2017 to 2018
$263k
NIA NIH HHS K23 AG055667NIA NIH HHS R03 AG056447
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known. Methods and Results We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c-statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was -1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c-statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c-statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c-statistic, 0.76). Conclusions Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.

Indexed as

Cardiopulmonary ResuscitationDeath, Sudden, CardiacHeart RatePredictive Value of TestsAgedAge FactorsCalibrationFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedOut-of-Hospital Cardiac ArrestPrognosisReproducibility of Resultscardiac arrestpredictionsudden cardiac death

Identifiers

PMID32787675
PMCPMC7660807
OpenAlexW3049350825

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.