Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32784246›Full record

ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2020

Components of diabetes prevalence in Denmark 1996-2016 and future trends until 2030.

Bendix Carstensen, Pernille Falberg Rønn, Marit Eika Jørgensen

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06473480 (Continuous GLUCOse Monitoring System With a SENSor Compared to Fingerstick Glucose Monitoring in Surgical Wards), which is not on this map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06473480 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Continuous GLUCOse Monitoring System With a SENSor Compared to Fingerstick Glucose Monitoring in Surgical Wards (GLUCOSENS)

TypeinterventionalSponsorOdense University HospitalRan2024 to 2025Enrolled329ConditionsDiabetes Mellitus, Hypoglycemia (Diabetic), Hypoglycemia Night, HyperglycemiaArmsAbbott FreeStyle Libre System 2 Plus, Abbott Freestyle Libre Pro
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Bendix CarstensenClinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Gentofte, Hovedstaden, Denmark.
Pernille Falberg RønnClinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Gentofte, Hovedstaden, Denmark.
Marit Eika JørgensenClinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Gentofte, Hovedstaden, Denmark marit.eika.joergensen@regionh.dk.ORCID 0000-0001-8356-5565

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIncidence rates of diabetes have been increasing and mortality rates have been decreasing. Our aim is the quantification of the effects of these on the prevalence and prediction of the future burden of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsFrom population-based registers of Denmark, we derived diabetes incidence and mortality rates and mortality rates for persons without diabetes for the period 1996-2016. Rates were modeled by smooth parametric terms using Poisson regression. Estimated rates were used to assess the relative contribution of incidence and mortality to changes in prevalence over the study period as well as for prediction of future rates and prevalence 2017-2040.

resultsThe major contributors to prevalence was increasing incidence (22%) and epidemiological imbalance between incidence and mortality (27%). The decrease in mortality rates over the period 1996-2016 contributes only 9% of the prevalent cases at 2016. We estimated that 467 000 persons in Denmark would be living with diabetes in 2030. The age distribution of patients in the period 2017-2030 is predicted to change toward older ages. The total number of persons needing diabetes care will increase by 67% over the next 13 years, an average annual increase of 4.0%.

conclusionsLowering mortality among patients with diabetes even further is not likely to influence the prevalence substantially. Since the size and the increase in incidence of diabetes are major drivers of the increasing prevalence, the prevention of new cases of diabetes is required.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusAgedDenmarkForecastingHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedPrevalenceepidemiologyincidencemortalityregistries

Identifiers

PMID32784246
PMCPMC7418686

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.