Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32783138›Full record

ArticleJournal of assisted reproduction and genetics2020

Machine learning vs. classic statistics for the prediction of IVF outcomes.

Zohar Barnett-Itzhaki, Miriam Elbaz, Rachely Butterman, Devora Amar, Moshe Amitay, Catherine Racowsky, Raoul Orvieto, Russ Hauser, Andrea A Baccarelli, Ronit Machtinger

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Zohar Barnett-ItzhakiPublic Health Services, Ministry of Health, 39 Yirmiyahu Street, 9446724, Jerusalem, Israel. zoharba@ruppin.ac.il.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9891-9397
Miriam ElbazBioinformatics Department, School of Life and Health Sciences, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel.
Rachely ButtermanBioinformatics Department, School of Life and Health Sciences, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel.
Devora AmarBioinformatics Department, School of Life and Health Sciences, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel.
Moshe AmitayBioinformatics Department, School of Life and Health Sciences, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel.
Catherine RacowskyDepartment of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Raoul OrvietoDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sheba Medical Center, 52561, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Russ HauserDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Andrea A BaccarelliLaboratory of Precision Environmental Biosciences, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, 10032, USA.
Ronit MachtingerDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sheba Medical Center, 52561, Ramat Gan, Israel.

Funding

True Metal fac coreP30ES009089 · NIEHS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI MATTHEW S PERZANOWSKI · 1998 to 2026
$44.7M
Translational Research Support CoreP30ES000002 · NIEHS · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI SUSAN A KORRICK · 1985 to 2026
$44.6M
Environmental Chemicals, Exosomal miRNAs in Ovarian Follicles, and IVF SuccessR21ES024236 · NIEHS · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HAUSER, RUSS B · 2014 to 2015
$470k
Environment and Health Fund RPGA1301NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES000002NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES009089NIEHS NIH HHS R21 ES024236NIH HHS P30ES00002 and K99ES026648NIH HHS R21ES024236
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo assess whether machine learning methods provide advantage over classic statistical modeling for the prediction of IVF outcomes.

methodsThe study population consisted of 136 women undergoing a fresh IVF cycle from January 2014 to August 2016 at a tertiary, university-affiliated medical center. We tested the ability of two machine learning algorithms, support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (NN), vs. classic statistics (logistic regression) to predict IVF outcomes (number of oocytes retrieved, mature oocytes, top-quality embryos, positive beta-hCG, clinical pregnancies, and live births) based on age and BMI, with or without clinical data.

resultsMachine learning algorithms (SVM and NN) based on age, BMI, and clinical features yielded better performances in predicting number of oocytes retrieved, mature oocytes, fertilized oocytes, top-quality embryos, positive beta-hCG, clinical pregnancies, and live births, compared with logistic regression models. While accuracies were 0.69 to 0.9 and 0.45 to 0.77 for NN and SVM, respectively, they were 0.34 to 0.74 using logistic regression models.

conclusionsOur findings suggest that machine learning algorithms based on age, BMI, and clinical data have an advantage over logistic regression for the prediction of IVF outcomes and therefore can assist fertility specialists' counselling and their patients in adjusting the appropriate treatment strategy.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdultFemaleFertilityFertilization in VitroHumansLive BirthLogistic ModelsOocyte RetrievalOocytesOvulation InductionPregnancyImplantationIVFMachine learningOocytesPrediction models

Identifiers

PMID32783138
PMCPMC7550518

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.