An approach for assessing ecosystem-based adaptation in coral reefs at relatively high latitudes to climate change and human pressure.

Relatively high-latitude waters are supposed as a refuge for corals under ocean warming. A systematic assessment of the Weizhou Island reef in the northern South China Sea, a relatively high-latitude region, shows that the ecosystem restoration index decreased from 0.96 to 0.62 during the period between 1990 and 2015. Although the biotic community, supporting services, and regulating services remained at good or very good states, the provisioning services, cultural services, and especially habitat structure deteriorated to very poor or moderate states. Gray relational analysis showed that these ecological declines exhibited a strong relationship with human pressures from tourism activities and the petrochemical industry. The recoveries of the biotic community and supporting services that benefited from wintertime warming appeared to be partly offset by intensive human pressures. The long-term effects on ecosystem structure and functions suggest that anthropogenic disturbances have impaired the possibility of this area serving as a potential thermal refuge for reef-building corals in the South China Sea. This study thus provides an integrated approach for assessing the adaptive responses of coral reef ecosystems to climate change and local human activities.