Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32782461›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Intensive Care Society2020

Using probabilistic patient flow modelling helps generate individualised intensive care unit operational predictions and improved understanding of current organisational behaviours.

George Hadjipavlou, Jill Titchell, Christina Heath, Richard Siviter, Hilary Madder

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Intensive Care Society, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

George HadjipavlouDepartment of Anaesthesia, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8170-5464
Jill TitchellNeurosciences Intensive Care Unit, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.
Christina HeathNeurosciences Intensive Care Unit, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.
Richard SiviterNeurosciences Intensive Care Unit, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.
Hilary MadderNeurosciences Intensive Care Unit, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeWe sought a bespoke, stochastic model for our specific, and complex ICU to understand its organisational behaviour and how best to focus our resources in order to optimise our intensive care unit's function.

methodsUsing 12 months of ICU data from 2017, we simulated different referral rates to find the threshold between occupancy and failed admissions and unsafe days. We also modelled the outcomes of four change options.

resultsNinety-two percent bed occupancy is our threshold between practical unit function and optimal resource use. All change options reduced occupancy, and less predictably unsafe days and failed admissions. They were ranked by magnitude and direction of change.

conclusionsThis approach goes one step further from past models by examining efficiency limits first, and then allowing change options to be quantitatively compared. The model can be adapted by any intensive care unit in order to predict optimal strategies for improving ICU efficiency.

Indexed as

efficiencyIntensive caremodellingMonte Carlo simulationsafety

Identifiers

PMID32782461
PMCPMC7401432

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.