SynthesisProceedings. Biological sciences2020
Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.
Synthesis in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 60 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
60 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Retrospective analysis of age-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions on wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Leveraging dynamics informed neural networks for predictive modeling of COVID-19 spread: a hybrid SEIRV-DNNs approach.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Improved estimation of the effective reproduction number with heterogeneous transmission rates and reporting delays.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Strategies to strengthen the resilience of primary health care in the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022).BMC public health · 2024Article
- Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Simulation Models for Suicide Prevention: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art.Computers (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa.PloS one · 2023Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Data-driven multiscale dynamical framework to control a pandemic evolution with non-pharmaceutical interventions.PloS one · 2023Article
- Adapting a Physical Earthquake-Aftershock Model to Simulate the Spread of COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Doubling time of infectious diseases.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Beyond compliance: Good citizenship during the COVID-19 pandemic.Transactions (Institute of British Geographers : 1965) · 2022Article
- Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- The challenges of data in future pandemics.Epidemics · 2022Review
- Refining Reproduction Number Estimates to Account for Unobserved Generations of Infection in Emerging Epidemics.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- First-wave COVID-19 daily cases obey gamma law.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
43 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.