Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32778177›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2020

Climate and tree seed production predict the abundance of the European Lyme disease vector over a 15-year period.

Cindy Bregnard, Olivier Rais, Maarten Jeroen Voordouw

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
5.9field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 46 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Coinfection ofPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Spatial and seasonal determinants of Lyme borreliosis incidence in France, 2016 to 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases.Annual review of resource economics · 2022
    Article
  9. Climate Changes Exacerbate the Spread ofInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Ticks, Human Babesiosis and Climate Change.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Cindy BregnardLaboratory of Ecology and Evolution of Parasites, Institute of Biology, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland. cindy.bregnard@unine.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3177-6130
Olivier RaisLaboratory of Ecology and Epidemiology of Parasites, Institute of Biology, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
Maarten Jeroen VoordouwLaboratory of Ecology and Evolution of Parasites, Institute of Biology, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
University of Neuchâtel · CHUniversity of Saskatchewan · CA

Funding

Bundesamt für Gesundheit 2009/10 (Projekt (911) 316)Bundesamt für Gesundheit 2011/13 (11.006911/ 304.0001-707)Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung FN 310030-127064Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung FN 320000-113936Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung FN 3200B0-100657Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (CH) FN 32-57098.99
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo predict the risk of tick-borne disease, it is critical to understand the ecological factors that determine the abundance of ticks. In Europe, the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus) transmits a number of important diseases including Lyme borreliosis. The aim of this long-term study was to determine the abiotic and biotic factors driving the annual abundance of I. ricinus at a location in Switzerland where Lyme borreliosis is endemic.

methodsOver a 15-year period (2004 to 2018), we monitored the abundance of I. ricinus ticks on a monthly basis at three different elevations on Chaumont Mountain in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. We collected climate variables in the field and from nearby weather stations. We obtained data on beech tree seed production from the literature, as the abundance of Ixodes nymphs can increase dramatically two years after a masting event. We used AIC-based model selection to determine which ecological variables drive annual variation in tick density.

resultsWe found that elevation site, year, seed production by beech trees two years prior, and mean annual relative humidity together explained 73.2% of the variation in our annual estimates of nymph density. According to the parameter estimates of our models, (i) the annual density of nymphs almost doubled over the 15-year study period, (ii) changing the beech tree seed production index from very poor mast (1) to full mast (5) increased the abundance of nymphs by 86.2% two years later, and (iii) increasing the field-collected mean annual relative humidity from 50.0 to 75.0% decreased the abundance of nymphs by 46.4% in the same year. Climate variables collected in the field were better predictors of tick abundance than those from nearby weather stations indicating the importance of the microhabitat.

conclusionsFrom a public health perspective, the increase in nymph abundance is likely to have increased the risk of tick-borne disease in this region of Switzerland. Public health officials in Europe should be aware that seed production by deciduous trees is a critical driver of the abundance of I. ricinus, and hence the risk of tick-borne disease.

Indexed as

IxodesAnimalsArachnid VectorsBorreliaClimate ChangeDisease VectorsFagusForestsLyme DiseaseModels, StatisticalPopulation DensityPublic HealthRetrospective StudiesSeedsSwitzerlandTick-Borne DiseasesBeech treeClimate changeFagus sylvaticaIxodes ricinusLyme diseaseMast yearsTick-borne diseaseTick population ecology

Identifiers

PMID32778177
PMCPMC7418309
OpenAlexW3048938718

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.