Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32777859›Full record

ArticleJournal of gastroenterology and hepatology2021

What is required for achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Singapore? A modeling study.

Antoine Chaillon, Prem Harichander Thurairajah, John Chen Hsiang, Natasha K Martin

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Antoine ChaillonDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-3857
Prem Harichander ThurairajahYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
John Chen HsiangYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Natasha K MartinDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.

Funding

VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI David Mitchell Smith · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
Optimizing HIV prevention portfolios targeting people who inject drugs using dynamic economic modelingR01AI147490 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA · 2019 to 2022
$2.3M
The Prostate as a Reservoir for Residual ReplicationR21AI131971 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI CHAILLON, ANTOINE · 2018 to 2019
$432k
Gilead SciencesNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesNIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI147490NIAID NIH HHS R21 AI131971NIDA NIH HHS R01AI147490NIH HHS AI036214NIH HHS AI131971-01NIH HHS P30 AI036214University of California San Diego Center for AIDS Research
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimThe vast majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Singapore is among those with a history of injecting drug use (IDU), yet harm reduction is not available and what is required to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination targets (80% incidence reduction and 65% mortality reduction by 2030) is unknown. We model the intervention scale-up required to achieve WHO targets in Singapore.

methodsA dynamic model of HCV transmission and progression among those with a history of IDU was calibrated to Singapore, a setting with declining IDU and no harm reduction (~11 000 people with IDU history in 2017 and 45% HCV seropositive). We projected HCV treatment scale-up from 2019 required to achieve WHO targets with varying prioritization scenarios, with/without opiate substitution therapy scale-up (to 40% among people who inject drugs [PWID]).

resultsWe estimated 3855 (95% confidence interval: 2635-5446) chronically HCV-infected individuals with a history of IDU and 148 (87-284) incident HCV cases in Singapore in 2019. Reaching the HCV incidence target requires 272 (187-384) treatments in 2019, totaling 2444 (1683-3452) across 2019-2030. By prioritizing PWID or PWID and cirrhotics, 60% or 30% fewer treatments are required, respectively, whereas the target cannot be achieved with cirrhosis prioritization. Opiate substitution therapy scale-up reduces treatments required by 21-24%. Achieving both WHO targets requires treating 631 (359-1047) in 2019, totaling 3816 (2664-5423) across 2019-2030.

conclusionsHepatitis C virus elimination is achievable in Singapore but even with declining IDU requires immediate treatment scale-up among PWID. Harm reduction provision reduces treatments required and provides additional benefits.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlDisease EradicationFemaleHepatitis CHumansIncidenceMaleSingaporeSubstance Abuse, IntravenousTime FactorsWorld Health OrganizationEliminationEpidemicHepatitis C virusLiver diseaseModelingOpioid substitution therapy (OST)People who inject drugs (PWID)PreventionPublic healthTreatment

Identifiers

PMID32777859
PMCPMC8174139

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.