ArticleMathematical biosciences2020
Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections.
Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Article
- A close contact identification algorithm using kernel density estimation for the ship passenger health.Journal of King Saud University. Computer and information sciences · 2023Article
- A new approach to modeling pre-symptomatic incidence and transmission time of imported COVID-19 cases evolving with SARS-CoV-2 variants.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2023Article
- Transmission and control of SARS-CoV-2 on ground public transport: A rapid review of the literature up to May 2021.Journal of transport & health · 2022Review
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Genomic and virologic characterization of samples from a shipboard outbreak of COVID-19 reveals distinct variants within limited temporospatial parameters.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Differential mutation profile of SARS-CoV-2 proteins across deceased and asymptomatic patients.Chemico-biological interactions · 2021Article
- Guidelines for Reopening a Nation in a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: A Path Forward.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2021Article
- Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in India and Its Four Worst-Affected States Using Modified SEIRD and LSTM Models.SN computer science · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.