ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2020
Travel restrictions and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: an effective distance approach to estimate impact.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 22 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The impact of geo-environmental factors on global COVID-19 transmission: A review of evidence and methodology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Classification Schemes of COVID-19 High Risk Areas and Resulting Policies: A Rapid Review.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Disruption of winter influenza activity in Wuxi, China during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2013-2025): a counterfactual time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Tracking down the origin and subsequent spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.619.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Global Mpox spread due to increased air travel.Geospatial health · 2024Article
- Development of New Stringency Indices for Nonpharmacological Social Distancing Policies Implemented in Korea During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Random Forest Approach.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Impact of airline network on the global importation risk of mpox, 2022.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Quasi-experimental evaluation of national border closures on COVID-19 transmission.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Estimating the Importation Risk of Mpox Virus in 2022 to Hong Kong, China.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.Journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Article
- Measures to prevent nosocomial transmissions of COVID-19 based on interpersonal contact data.Primary health care research & development · 2022Article
- Article
- Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Exploring geographical distribution of transportation research themes related to COVID-19 using text network approach.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Brazil Covid-19: Change of hospitalizations and deaths due to burn injury?Burns : journal of the International Society for Burn Injuries · 2021Article
- Impact of domestic travel restrictions on transmission of COVID-19 infection using public transportation network approach.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Airline transportation and arrival time of international disease spread: A case study of Covid-19.PloS one · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedCorrigendum.2020
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate the effect of airline travel restrictions on the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) importation.
methodsWe extracted passenger volume data for the entire global airline network, as well as the dates of the implementation of travel restrictions and the observation of the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in each country or territory, from publicly available sources. We calculated effective distance between every airport and the city of Wuhan, China. We modelled the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation by estimating survival probability, expressing median time of importation as a function of effective distance. We calculated the relative change in importation risk under three different hypothetical scenarios that all resulted in different passenger volumes.
findingsWe identified 28 countries with imported cases of COVID-19 as at 26 February 2020. The arrival time of the virus at these countries ranged from 39 to 80 days since identification of the first case in Wuhan. Our analysis of relative change in risk indicated that strategies of reducing global passenger volume and imposing travel restrictions at a further 10 hub airports would be equally effective in reducing the risk of importation of SARS-CoV-2; however, this reduction is very limited with a close-to-zero median relative change in risk.
conclusionThe hypothetical variations in observed travel restrictions were not sufficient to prevent the global spread of SARS-CoV-2; further research should also consider travel by land and sea. Our study highlights the importance of strengthening local capacities for disease monitoring and control.
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