Incidence and Bedside Predictors of the First Episode of Overt Hepatic Encephalopathy in Patients With Cirrhosis.

introductionHepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine the risk of and predictors for HE in contemporary patients.

methodsWe prospectively enrolled 294 subjects with Child A-B (70% Child A) cirrhosis and portal hypertension without previous HE from July 2016 to August 2018. The primary outcome was the development of overt HE (grade >2). We assessed the predictive power of model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score, the Inhibitory Control Test, the Sickness Impact Profile score, and the Bilirubin-Albumin-Beta-Blocker-Statin score. We also derived a novel predictive model incorporating MELD-Na score, impact of cirrhosis on daily activity (Likert 1-9), frailty (chair-stands per 30 seconds), and health-related quality of life (Short-Form 8, 0-100).

resultsThe cohort's median age was 60 years, 56% were men, and the median MELD-Na score was 9. During a follow-up of 548 ± 281 days, 62 (21%) had incident overt HE with 1-year probability of 14% ± 2%, 10% ± 2%, and 25% ± 5% for Child A and B. The best model for predicting the risk of overt HE included MELD-Na, Short-Form 8, impact on activity rating, and chair-stands within 30 seconds. This model-MELDNa-Actvity-Chairstands-Quality of Life Hepatic Encephalopathy Score-offered an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for HE development at 12 months of 0.82 compared with 0.55, 0.61, 0.70, and 0.72 for the Inhibitory Control Test, Sickness Impact Profile, Bilirubin-Albumin-Beta-Blocker-Statin, and MELD-Na, respectively. The AUROC for HE-related hospitalization was 0.92. DISCUSSION: This study provides the incidence of HE in a well-characterized cohort of contemporary patients. Bedside measures such as activity, quality of life, and physical function accurately stratified the patient's risk for overt HE.