ArticleInternational journal of health policy and management2022
Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios.
Article in International journal of health policy and management, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Epidemiological surveillance of respiratory viral infections in SARS-CoV-2-negative samples during COVID-19 pandemic in Iran.Virology journal · 2023Article
- International Journal of Health Policy and Management (IJHPM): A Decade of Advancing Knowledge and Influencing Global Health Policy (2013-2023).International journal of health policy and management · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the Response Rates of Hospitals in the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in Hamadan Province of Iran.Health services insights · 2023Article
- Quarantine, physical distancing and social isolation measures in individuals potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in community settings and health services: a scoping review.Nepal journal of epidemiology · 2022Article
- Estimating the Number of COVID-19 Cases and Impact of New COVID-19 Variants and Vaccination on the Population in Kerman, Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- A mediating role for mental health in associations between COVID-19-related self-stigma, PTSD, quality of life, and insomnia among patients recovered from COVID-19.Brain and behavior · 2021Article
- A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making.BMJ global health · 2021Review
- COVID-19 in Iran: What was done and what should be done.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2021Article
- COVID-19 response in the Middle East and north Africa: challenges and paths forward.The Lancet. Global health · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.
methodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
resultsUnder scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).
conclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
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