ArticleBMJ open2020
Generating national projections of dementia cases for Ireland using a calibrated macro-simulation model.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Forecasted Dementia Prevalence in Portugal (2020-2080).Journal of geriatric psychiatry and neurology · 2024Article
- Article
- Adapting a quality improvement collaborative to a new national context: a co-design and feasibility study to improve dementia care in Ireland.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Cognitive stimulation and activities of daily living for individuals with mild-to-moderate dementia: A scoping review.The British journal of occupational therapy · 2023Review
- A 14-Year Longitudinal Analysis of Healthcare Expenditure on Dementia and Related Factors (DEMENCOST Study).Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2023Article
- Exploratory pilot study on resource allocation along the dementia continuum under constrained and unconstrained budget scenarios.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
introductionEpidemiological data on dementia is not available in many European countries and regions due to the high cost and complexity of conducting large scale dementia screening studies. The available epidemiological studies identify potentially substantial variation in the prevalence of dementia over time and across Europe.
methodsIn this paper we generate simulations of the number of dementia cases in Ireland from 1991 to 2036 using a three-state Markov illness-death model. Parameters values are selected for each simulation from a range using a random parameter search pattern. We employ a novel calibration method which exploits the strong relationship between dementia, ageing and mortality. Simulation weights are generated based on differences between observed and modelled cohorts of older people and the reported number of deaths from dementia. Irish Census data from 1991 to 2016 and the number of recorded deaths due to dementia in 2018 are used as calibration points. A weighted average projection of the number of dementia cases is generated.
resultsWe estimate a weighted average number of cases of dementia in 2016 of 54 877 increasing to 98 946 in 2036; this estimate is substantially lower than the estimates generated using extrapolation methods. We show the wide range of possible outcomes given the range in the available parameter estimates and show that irrespective of whether the incidence rate of dementia is declining the number of cases of dementia is rapidly increasing due to population ageing.
conclusionPrevious studies have used parameter estimates from meta-analyses of the literature or from individual studies. In this paper we supplement these with a calibration approach using observed cause of death and population age structure data. These additional sources of data can be used to generate estimates of dementia prevalence in any country or region which has census data and data on deaths due to dementia.
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