Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32770027›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

Development and validation of a 1-year survival prognosis estimation model for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis using manifold learning algorithm UMAP.

Vincent Grollemund, Gaétan Le Chat, Marie-Sonia Secchi-Buhour, François Delbot, Jean-François Pradat-Peyre, Peter Bede, Pierre-François Pradat

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Review
  5. A neuromuscular clinician's primer on machine learning.Journal of neuromuscular diseases · 2026
    Review
  6. Article
  7. New developments in imaging in ALS.Journal of neurology · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Vincent GrollemundLaboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6, Sorbonne Université, Paris, 75005, France. vincent.grollemund@lip6.fr.
Gaétan Le ChatFRS Consulting, Paris, 75009, France.
Marie-Sonia Secchi-BuhourFRS Consulting, Paris, 75009, France.
François DelbotLaboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6, Sorbonne Université, Paris, 75005, France.
Jean-François Pradat-PeyreLaboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6, Sorbonne Université, Paris, 75005, France.
Peter BedeLaboratoire d'Imagerie Biomédicale, Sorbonne Université, Paris, 75005, France.
Pierre-François PradatLaboratoire d'Imagerie Biomédicale, Sorbonne Université, Paris, 75005, France.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is an inexorably progressive neurodegenerative condition with no effective disease modifying therapies. The development and validation of reliable prognostic models is a recognised research priority. We present a prognostic model for survival in ALS where result uncertainty is taken into account. Patient data were reduced and projected onto a 2D space using Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP), a novel non-linear dimension reduction technique. Information from 5,220 patients was included as development data originating from past clinical trials, and real-world population data as validation data. Predictors included age, gender, region of onset, symptom duration, weight at baseline, functional impairment, and estimated rate of functional loss. UMAP projection of patients shows an informative 2D data distribution. As limited data availability precluded complex model designs, the projection was divided into three zones with relevant survival rates. These rates were defined using confidence bounds: high, intermediate, and low 1-year survival rates at respectively [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]), [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]). Predicted 1-year survival was estimated using zone membership. This approach requires a limited set of features, is easily updated, improves with additional patient data, and accounts for results uncertainty.

Indexed as

Age FactorsAlgorithmsAmyotrophic Lateral SclerosisFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalPrognosisReproducibility of ResultsSex FactorsSurvival AnalysisUnsupervised Machine Learning

Identifiers

PMID32770027
PMCPMC7414917

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.