ArticleTobacco control2021
Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century.
Article in Tobacco control, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mortality Dynamics in Low-Mortality Countries: An Introduction to the Special Issue.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2026Article
- Gender-Specific Trends and Determinants of Daily Smoking in Latvia (2009-2019): A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Causes and extent of avoidable mortality across the european union: insights for advancing healthy aging.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Cancer mortality in Europe in 2020, and an overview of trends since 1990.European journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP) · 2026Article
- National Life Expectancy Lags Behind Benchmark Progress and the Role of Smoking: An International Comparison.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- Smoking Pregnant Woman: Individual, Family, and Primary Healthcare Aspects.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Patterns of cigarette, e-cigarette, heated tobacco, and alcohol use in solid organ transplant recipients, a pre- versus post-transplant comparison: Survey results from a transplantation center in Poland.Tobacco prevention & cessation · 2025Article
- Estimated impact of a tobacco-elimination strategy on lung-cancer mortality in 185 countries: a population-based birth-cohort simulation study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- The epidemiology of lung cancer in Hungary based on the characteristics of patients diagnosed in 2018.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Pancreatic Cancer: A Review of Risk Factors.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- First experience with nicotine products and transition to regular tobacco use: a secondary data analysis in 28 European countries.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality - an analysis of 28 European countries 1995-2019.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Changes in Attitudes toward Tobacco Smoking and Factors Associated with Quitting in 9-Year Observation of PURE Poland Cohort Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Smoking Behavior among Adolescents: The Lebanese Experience with Cigarette Smoking and Waterpipe Use.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Gender and tobacco epidemic in South Korea: implications from age-period-cohort analysis and the DPSEEA framework.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Trends in Deaths Attributable to Smoking in China, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States From 1990 to 2019.International journal of public health · 2022Article
- Causes of Sickness Absenteeism in Europe-Analysis from an Intercountry and Gender Perspective.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A Divide between the Western European and the Central and Eastern European Countries in the Peripheral Vascular Field: A Narrative Review of the Literature.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Review
- Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol.eLife · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension.
methodsWe estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950-2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend.
resultsSAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)-41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%-15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%-9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)-28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%-20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%-7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends.
conclusionOur novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.
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