ArticlePloS one2020
Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Time trend and identification of risk areas for physical disability due to leprosy in Brazil: An ecological study, 2001-2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Serum Levels of Ficolin-3 and Mannose-Binding Lectin in Patients with Leprosy and Their Family Contacts in a Hyperendemic Region in Northeastern Brazil.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of leprosy from 2000 to 2019 in a state with low endemicity in southern Brazil.Anais brasileiros de dermatologiaObservational
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.
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