Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32762088›Full record

ArticleVox sanguinis2021

HIV incidence in South African blood donors from 2012 to 2016: a comparison of estimation methods.

Marion Vermeulen, Dhuly Chowdhury, Ronel Swanevelder, Eduard Grebe, Donald Brambilla, Ute Jentsch, Michael Busch, Gert Van Zyl, Edward L Murphy, REDS-III International Program South Africa

Open access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Vox sanguinis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 17 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Marion VermeulenThe South African National Blood Service, Roodepoort, South Africa.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4383-4526
Dhuly ChowdhuryResearch Triangle Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Ronel SwanevelderThe South African National Blood Service, Roodepoort, South Africa.
Eduard GrebeVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Donald BrambillaResearch Triangle Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
Ute JentschThe South African National Blood Service, Roodepoort, South Africa.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5841-0542
Michael BuschVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Gert Van ZylStellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Edward L MurphyVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA.
REDS-III International Program South Africa
South African National Blood Service · ZAPacific Research Institute · USRTI International · USStellenbosch University · ZAUniversity of California, San Francisco · US

Funding

Research training in HIV-related transfusion medicine and hematology in South AfricaD43TW010345 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI UTE JENTSCH, EDWARD L MURPHY · 2017 to 2026
$3.0M
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW010345NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN-268201100009-INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009I
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMeasuring incidence is important for monitoring and maintaining the safety of the blood supply. Blood collected from repeat-donors has provided the opportunity to follow blood donors over time and has been used to estimate the incidence of viral infections. These incidence estimates have been extrapolated to first-time donors using the ratio of NAT yield cases in first-time versus repeat-donors. We describe a model to estimate incidence in first-time donors using the limiting antigen (LAg) avidity assay and compare its results with those from established models.

methodsHIV-positive first-time donations were tested for recency using the LAg assay. Three models were compared; incidence estimated for (1) first-time donors using LAg avidity, (2) first-time and repeat-donors separately using the NAT yield window period (WP) model and (3) repeat-donors using the incidence/WP model.

resultsHIV incidence in first-time donors was estimated at 3·32 (CI 3·11, 3·55) and 3·81 (CI 3·07, 4·73) per 1000 PY using the LAg assay and NAT yield WP models, respectively. Incidence in repeat-donors was between 2·0- and 2·5-fold lower than in first-time donors estimated at 1·56 (CI 1·37, 1·77) and 1·94 (CI 1·86-2·01) per 1000 PY using the NAT yield/WP and incidence/WP models, respectively.

conclusionTesting HIV-positive donations using the LAg assay provides a reliable method to estimate incidence in first-time donors for countries that collect the majority of blood from first-time donors and do not screen with NAT.

Indexed as

Blood DonorsAdolescentAdultFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceMaleSouth AfricaYoung Adultblood safetyNAT testingresidual risk estimationtransfusion - transmissible infections

Identifiers

PMID32762088
PMCPMC7970713
OpenAlexW3047743515

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.