Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32759205›Full record

Observational studyNeurology2020

Development and validation of a predictive model of drug-resistant genetic generalized epilepsy.

Hyunmi Choi, Kamil Detyniecki, Carl Bazil, Suzanne Thornton, Peter Crosta, Hatem Tolba, Manahil Muneeb, Lawrence J Hirsch, Erin L Heinzen, Arjune Sen and 4 more

Open access · greenAbstract readObservational StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Neurology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 1 institution in 4 countries.

Hyunmi ChoiFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ. hc323@columbia.edu.
Kamil DetynieckiFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.ORCID 0000-0002-8334-1403
Carl BazilFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Suzanne ThorntonFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Peter CrostaFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Hatem TolbaFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Manahil MuneebFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Lawrence J HirschFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Erin L HeinzenFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Arjune SenFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Chantal DepondtFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.
Piero PeruccaFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.ORCID 0000-0002-7855-7066
Gary A HeimanFrom the Department of Neurology (H.C., C.B., P.C., M.M.) and Institute for Genomic Medicine (E.L.H.), Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (K.D.), University of Miami, FL; Department of Statistics and Biostatistics (S.T.), Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; Department of Neurology (H.T., L.J.H.), Yale University, New Haven, CT; Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences (A.S.), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Neurology (C.D.), Free University of Brussels, Belgium; Department of Neuroscience (P.P.), Monash University; Departments of Medicine and Neurology (P.P.), The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne; Department of Neurology (P.P.), Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; and Department of Genetics (G.A.H.), Human Genetics Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ.ORCID 0000-0001-5859-0259
EPIGEN Consortium
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey · US

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Shared Genetic Risk for Epilepsy and DepressionK23NS054981 · NINDS · RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIV OF N.J. · PI HEIMAN, GARY A. · 2007 to 2011
$758k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NINDS NIH HHS K23 NS054981
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and validate a clinical prediction model for antiepileptic drug (AED)-resistant genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE).

methodWe performed a case-control study of patients with and without drug-resistant GGE, nested within ongoing longitudinal observational studies of AED response at 2 tertiary epilepsy centers. Using a validation dataset, we tested the predictive performance of 3 candidate models, developed from a training dataset. We then tested the candidate models' predictive ability on an external testing dataset.

resultsOf 5,189 patients in the ongoing longitudinal study, 121 met criteria for AED-resistant GGE and 468 met criteria for AED-responsive GGE. There were 66 patients with GGE in the external dataset, of whom 17 were cases. Catamenial epilepsy, history of a psychiatric condition, and seizure types were strongly related with drug-resistant GGE case status. Compared to women without catamenial epilepsy, women with catamenial epilepsy had about a fourfold increased risk for AED resistance. The calibration of 3 models, assessing the agreement between observed outcomes and predictions, was adequate. Discriminative ability, as measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), ranged from 0.58 to 0.65.

conclusionCatamenial epilepsy, history of a psychiatric condition, and the seizure type combination of generalized tonic clonic, myoclonic, and absence seizures are negative prognostic factors of drug-resistant GGE. The AUC of 0.6 is not consistent with truly effective separation of the groups, suggesting other unmeasured variables may need to be considered in future studies to improve predictability.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAdolescentAdultAge of OnsetCase-Control StudiesChildChild, PreschoolDrug Resistant EpilepsyEpilepsy, GeneralizedFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID32759205
PMCPMC7713754
OpenAlexW3047280228

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.