Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32758295›Full record

ArticleCritical care (London, England)2020

The obesity paradox in critically ill patients: a causal learning approach to a casual finding.

Alexander Decruyenaere, Johan Steen, Kirsten Colpaert, Dominique D Benoit, Johan Decruyenaere, Stijn Vansteelandt

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Critical care (London, England), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Body mass index and hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure: A retrospective cohort study.Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Leptin and Acute Lung Disorders.Comprehensive Physiology · 2025
    Review
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  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. The impact of body mass index on long-term survival after ICU admission due to COVID-19: A retrospective multicentre study.Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine · 2023
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Obesity, leptin and host defence ofEuropean respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2022
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Alexander DecruyenaereDepartment of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, C. Heymanslaan 10, 9000, Ghent, Belgium. alexander.decruyenaere@ugent.be.ORCID 0000-0001-6795-7606
Johan SteenDepartment of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, C. Heymanslaan 10, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Kirsten ColpaertDepartment of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, C. Heymanslaan 10, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Dominique D BenoitDepartment of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, C. Heymanslaan 10, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Johan DecruyenaereDepartment of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, C. Heymanslaan 10, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Stijn VansteelandtDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile obesity confers an increased risk of death in the general population, numerous studies have reported an association between obesity and improved survival among critically ill patients. This contrary finding has been referred to as the obesity paradox. In this retrospective study, two causal inference approaches were used to address whether the survival of non-obese critically ill patients would have been improved if they had been obese.

methodsThe study cohort comprised 6557 adult critically ill patients hospitalized at the Intensive Care Unit of the Ghent University Hospital between 2015 and 2017. Obesity was defined as a body mass index of ≥ 30 kg/m

resultsObesity was present in 18.9% of patients. The in-hospital mortality was 14.6% in non-obese patients and 13.5% in obese patients. The raw marginal risk difference for in-hospital mortality between obese and non-obese patients was - 1.06% (95% confidence interval (CI) - 3.23 to 1.11%, P = 0.337). The traditional approach resulted in an AON of - 2.48% (95% CI - 4.80 to - 0.15%, P = 0.037), whereas the robust approach yielded an AON of - 0.59% (95% CI - 2.77 to 1.60%, P = 0.599).

conclusionsA causal inference approach that is robust to residual confounding bias due to model misspecification and selection bias due to missing (at random) data mitigates the obesity paradox observed in critically ill patients, whereas a traditional approach results in even more paradoxical findings. The robust approach does not provide evidence that the survival of non-obese critically ill patients would have been improved if they had been obese.

Indexed as

AgedCausalityCritical IllnessFemaleHospital MortalityHumansIntensive Care UnitsMaleMiddle AgedObesityRetrospective StudiesSurvival AnalysisTreatment OutcomeCausalityConfoundingMachine learningMortalityObesityParadoxSelection biasSuper learningTargeted learning

Identifiers

PMID32758295
PMCPMC7405433

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.