A set of six Gene expression biomarkers and their thresholds identify rat liver tumorigens in short-term assays.

Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are retrospective, resource-intensive, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In earlier studies, we used a set of six biomarkers to accurately identify liver tumorigens in transcript profiles derived from chemically-treated rats using either a Toxicological Priority Index (ToxPi) approach or using derived biomarker thresholds for cancer. The biomarkers consisting of 7-113 genes are used to predict the most common liver cancer molecular initiating events: genotoxicity, cytotoxicity and activation of the xenobiotic receptors AhR, CAR, ER, and PPARα. In the present study, we apply and evaluate the performance of these methods for cancer prediction in an independent rat liver study of 44 chemicals (6 h-7d exposures) examined by Affymetrix arrays. In the first approach, ToxPi ranking of biomarker scores consistently gave the highest scores to tumorigenic chemical-dose pairs; balanced accuracies for identification of liver tumorigenic chemicals were up to 89 %. The second approach used tumorigenic thresholds derived in the present study or from our earlier study that were set at the maximum value for chemical-dose exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. Using these thresholds, balanced accuracies were up to 90 %. Both approaches identified all tumorigenic chemicals. Almost all of the tumorigenic chemicals activated more than one MIE. We also compared biomarker responses between two types of profiling platforms (Affymetrix full-genome array, TempO-Seq 1500+ array containing ∼2600 genes) and found that the lack of the full set of biomarker genes on the 1500+ array resulted in decreased ability to identify chemicals that activate the MIEs. Overall, these results demonstrate that predictive approaches based on the 6 biomarkers could be used in short-term assays to identify chemicals and their doses that induce liver tumors, the most common endpoint in rodent bioassays.