Comparison of Self-Reported Sexual Activity Among Heterosexuals with Sexual Spread of Poorly Transmittable Agents: A Minimalistic Approach to Estimating Sexual Activity Based on HIV Incidence.

The aim of this study was to assess whether epidemics of sexually transmitted infections caused by poorly transmittable agents corresponded to self-reported sexual activity in a distinct population. To exemplify this, a model was used to investigate whether HIV infection incidences corresponded to the extent of sexual activity as assessed by a questionnaire-based study. The model suggested between 97 and 486 sexual contacts per German individual during a sexually active lifetime based on the annual HIV incidence of 680 among the heterosexual population reported by the German National Health Authority. This is in line with the estimated 296 sexual contacts during one's lifetime, which was indicated by questionnaire respondents. The model confirms the correspondence of self-reported sexual activity with HIV incidence as reported by the German National Health Authority. Accordingly, HIV incidence- and prevalence-based modeling of sexual activity in a population provides crude estimations in situations where a range of uncertainty is acceptable. The model's veracity is limited by a number of assumptions necessitated by the paucity of data. Nevertheless, the model may be suitable in settings where severe reporting bias has to be expected for legal or socio-cultural reasons.