ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers.
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Who cites it
53 citing papers in PubMed.
- Economic Epidemiology: A Framework to Study Interactions of Epidemics and the Economy.Applied health economics and health policy · 2024Article
- Predicting economic resilience of territories in Italy during the COVID-19 first lockdown.Expert systems with applications · 2023Article
- Economic activities' response to the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries.Scientific African · 2023Article
- Job loss and job instability during the COVID-19 pandemic and the risk of depression and anxiety among Swedish employees.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach.Economics and human biology · 2023Review
- Cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies against the COVID-19 pandemic.Health services management research · 2023Article
- Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea.Journal of Asian economics · 2023Article
- The shock, the coping, the resilience: smartphone application use reveals Covid-19 lockdown effects on human behaviors.EPJ data science · 2023Article
- Phase-wise evaluation and optimization of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Modelling optimal lockdowns with waning immunity.Economic theory · 2022Article
- Was EU's COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy irrational? A re-analysis based on cost-effectiveness considerations.BMC health services research · 2022Article
- A typology of Jordanian consumers after Covid-19: The rational, the suspicious, and the cautious consumer.The Journal of consumer affairs · 2022Article
- The euro area's pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation.Journal of economic dynamics & control · 2022Article
- Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response.Journal of economic behavior & organization · 2022Article
- Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 suppression and early closure of bars and restaurants: a longitudinal natural experiment.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Regional and sectorial impacts of the Covid-19 crisis: Evidence from electronic payments.Journal of regional science · 2022Article
- Value-based pricing of a COVID-19 vaccine.The Quarterly review of economics and finance : journal of the Midwest Economics Association · 2022Article
- Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID-19 crises.Journal of international money and finance · 2022Article
- Half-hearted policies on mobility restrictions during COVID-19 in Indonesia: A portrait of large informal economy country.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2022Article
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4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.
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