Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32741825›Full record

ArticleJournal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD2020

Validation of Random Forest Machine Learning Models to Predict Dementia-Related Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Real-World Data.

Javier Mar, Ania Gorostiza, Oliver Ibarrondo, Carlos Cernuda, Arantzazu Arrospide, Álvaro Iruin, Igor Larrañaga, Mikel Tainta, Enaitz Ezpeleta, Ane Alberdi

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 35 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Javier MarBasque Health Service (Osakidetza), Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Ania GorostizaBasque Health Service (Osakidetza), Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Oliver IbarrondoBasque Health Service (Osakidetza), Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Carlos CernudaMondragon Unibertsitatea, Faculty of Engineering, Electronics and Computing Department, Arrasate-Mondragon, Gipuzkoa, Spain.
Arantzazu ArrospideBasque Health Service (Osakidetza), Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Álvaro IruinBiodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastán, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Igor LarrañagaBasque Health Service (Osakidetza), Debagoiena Integrated Healthcare Organisation, Research Unit, Arrasate-Mondragón, Guipúzcoa, Spain.
Mikel TaintaKronikgune Institute for Health Service Research, Barakaldo, Spain.
Enaitz EzpeletaMondragon Unibertsitatea, Faculty of Engineering, Electronics and Computing Department, Arrasate-Mondragon, Gipuzkoa, Spain.
Ane AlberdiMondragon Unibertsitatea, Faculty of Engineering, Electronics and Computing Department, Arrasate-Mondragon, Gipuzkoa, Spain.
Biogipuzkoa Health Research Institute · ESMondragon Unibertsitatea · ESOsasun Sistemen Ikerketa Institutua · ESBasque Government · ES

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNeuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) are the leading cause of the social burden of dementia but their role is underestimated.

objectiveThe objective of the study was to validate predictive models to separately identify psychotic and depressive symptoms in patients diagnosed with dementia using clinical databases representing the whole population to inform decision-makers.

methodsFirst, we searched the electronic health records of 4,003 patients with dementia to identify NPS. Second, machine learning (random forest) algorithms were applied to build separate predictive models for psychotic and depressive symptom clusters in the training set (N = 3,003). Third, calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test set (N = 1,000) to assess the performance of the models.

resultsNeuropsychiatric symptoms were noted in the electronic health record of 58% of patients. The area under the receiver operating curve reached 0.80 for the psychotic cluster model and 0.74 for the depressive cluster model. The Kappa index and accuracy also showed better discrimination in the psychotic model. Calibration plots indicated that both types of model had less predictive accuracy when the probability of neuropsychiatric symptoms was <25%. The most important variables in the psychotic cluster model were use of risperidone, level of sedation, use of quetiapine and haloperidol and the number of antipsychotics prescribed. In the depressive cluster model, the most important variables were number of antidepressants prescribed, escitalopram use, level of sedation, and age.

conclusionGiven their relatively good performance, the predictive models can be used to estimate prevalence of NPS in population databases.

Indexed as

Data AnalysisAgedAged, 80 and overDatabases, FactualDementiaElectronic Health RecordsFemaleForecastingHumansMachine LearningMaleMental DisordersReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesDementiadepressive symptomsmachine learningneuropsychiatric symptomspredictive model\sep prevalencepsychotic symptomsreal-world data

Identifiers

PMID32741825
PMCPMC7592688
OpenAlexW3046299046

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.