Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32738486›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability.

Austin N Hardcastle, Joshua C P Osborne, Rebecca E Ramshaw, Erin N Hulland, Julia D Morgan, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Julia Hon, Lucas Earl, Peter Rabinowitz, Judith N Wasserheit and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Arthropod-borne diseases among travellers arriving in Europe from Africa, 2015 to 2019.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023
    Article
  9. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Austin N HardcastleInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Joshua C P OsborneInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Rebecca E RamshawInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Erin N HullandInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Julia D MorganInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Molly K Miller-PetrieInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Julia HonInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lucas EarlInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Peter RabinowitzDepartment of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Judith N WasserheitDepartment of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Marius GilbertSpatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS), Brussels, Belgium.
Timothy P RobinsonAnimal Production and Health Division (AGA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy.
G R William WintEnvironmental Research Group Oxford (ERGO), c/o Department of Zoology, Oxford, UK.
Shreya ShirudeInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
David M PigottInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: pigottdm@uw.edu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

methodsWe combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations.

resultsSeveral countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year.

conclusionsThe widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

Indexed as

AnimalsDisease OutbreaksGlobal HealthHealth PlanningHumansModels, BiologicalRift Valley FeverRift Valley fever virusRisk AssessmentSeasonsEnvironmental suitabilityMappingOutbreakPreparednessRift Valley FeverSpillover potential

Identifiers

PMID32738486
PMCPMC7562817

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.