Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32734759›Full record

ArticleExploratory research and hypothesis in medicine2020

Associations of Stay-at-Home Order and Face-Masking Recommendation with Trends in Daily New Cases and Deaths of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in the United States.

Jie Xu, Sabiha Hussain, Guanzhu Lu, Kai Zheng, Shi Wei, Wei Bao, Lanjing Zhang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Exploratory research and hypothesis in medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  16. Household factors and the risk of severe COVID-like illness early in the US pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jie XuDepartment of Infectious Disease, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Sabiha HussainDepartment of Medicine, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
Guanzhu LuDepartment of Infectious Disease, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Kai ZhengDepartment of Informatics, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
Shi WeiDepartment of Pathology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
Wei BaoDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.
Lanjing ZhangDepartment of Biological Sciences, Rutgers University Newark, NJ, USA.

Funding

University of California Health Participation in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)UL1TR001414 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-IRVINE · PI COOPER, DAN M, VILAIN, ERIC J. · 2015 to 2023
$35.1M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001414
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesPublic health interventions have reduced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in several countries, but their impacts on COVID-19 epidemics in the USA are unclear. We examined associations of stay-at-home order (SAHO) and face-masking recommendation with COVID-19 epidemics in the USA.

methodsIn this quasi-experimental interrupted time-series study, we modeled temporal trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers in the USA between March 1 and April 20, 2020. In addition, we conducted simulation analyses.

resultsThe number of residents under SAHO increased since March 19 and plateaued at 290,829,980 (88.6% of the U.S. population) on April 7. Trends in COVID-19 time-varying reproduction numbers peaked on March 23, further reduced on April 3, and fell below/around 1.0 on April 13. Early-implementation and early-lift of SAHO would reduce and increase COVID-19 epidemics, respectively. Multivariable piecewise log-linear regression revealed the states' neighboring relationship with New York was linked to COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. There were two turning points in daily new-case trend, being March 28 (slope-changes = -0.09) and April 3 (slope-changes = -0.09), which appeared to be associated with implementation of SAHO on March 28 (affecting 48.5% of the US population in 22 states and District of Columbia), and face-masking recommendation on April 3, respectively. There were also two turning points in daily new-death trend, being April 9 (slope-changes = -0.06) and April 19 (slope-changes = -0.90).

conclusionsWe identified two turning points of COVID-19 daily new cases or deaths in the USA, which seem to be linked to implementation of SAHO and the Center for Disease Control's face-masking recommendation.

Indexed as

Coronavirus disease 2019COVIDFace-maskingIncidencePolicyTrend

Identifiers

PMID32734759
PMCPMC7361445

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.