ArticleInternational journal of health policy and management2020
COVID-19 Intervention Scenarios for a Long-term Disease Management.
Article in International journal of health policy and management, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Pooled it
- State of the Art in Adoption of Contact Tracing Apps and Recommendations Regarding Privacy Protection and Public Health: Systematic Review.JMIR mHealth and uHealth · 2021Pooled it
- The Importance of Uncertainty in Health Scenarios: A Scoping Review on COVID-19 Scenarios.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2023Article
- Predicting and preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in indoor environments: an agent-based modeling study.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Modeling the systemic risks of COVID-19 on the wildland firefighting workforce.Scientific reports · 2022Review
- Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design.Journal of economic interaction and coordination · 2022Article
- The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Obesity and gynecological cancers: A toxic relationship.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2021Article
- Returning to a Normal Life via COVID-19 Vaccines in the United States: A Large-scale Agent-Based Simulation Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2021Article
- To Freeze or Not to Freeze? Epidemic Prevention and Control in the DSGE Model Using an Agent-Based Epidemic Component.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe first outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was successfully restrained in many countries around the world by means of a severe lockdown. Now, we are entering the second phase of the pandemics in which the spread of the virus needs to be contained within the limits that national health systems can cope with. This second phase of the epidemics is expected to last until a vaccination is available or herd immunity is reached. Long-term management strategies thus need to be developed.
methodsIn this paper we present a new agent-based simulation model "COVID-19 ABM" with which we simulate 4 alternative scenarios for the second "new normality" phase that can help decision-makers to take adequate control and intervention measures.
resultsThe scenarios resulted in distinctly different outcomes. A continued lockdown could regionally eradicate the virus within a few months, whereas a relaxation back to 80% of former activity-levels was followed by a second outbreak. Contact-tracing as well as adaptive response strategies could keep COVID-19 within limits.
conclusionThe main insights are that low-level voluntary use of tracing apps shows no relevant effects on containing the virus, whereas medium or high-level tracing allows maintaining a considerably higher level of social activity. Adaptive control strategies help in finding the level of least restrictions. A regional approach to adaptive management can further help in fine-tuning the response to regional dynamics and thus minimise negative economic effects.
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