Observational studyAmerican journal of nephrology2020
Nephrology Provider Surprise Question Response and Hospitalizations in Older Adults with Advanced CKD.
Observational study in American journal of nephrology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Surprise Question and clinician-predicted prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ supportive & palliative care · 2024Pooled it
- Charlson comorbidity index and all-cause mortality in patients with delayed hemodialysis initiation: a prospective cohort study.BMC nephrology · 2025Article
- Dialysis in the Elderly: A Practical Guide for the Clinician.International journal of nephrology · 2025Review
- Shared decision-making and planning end-of-life care for patients with end-stage kidney disease: a protocol for developing and testing a complex intervention.Pilot and feasibility studies · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundOlder adults with advanced non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) face a high risk of hospitalization and related adverse events.
methodsThis prospective cohort study followed nephrology clinic patients ≥60 years old with NDD-CKD stages 4-5. After an eligible patient's office visit, study staff asked the patient's provider to rate the patient's risk of death within the next year using the surprise question ("Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?") with a 5-point Likert scale response (1, "definitely not surprised" to 5, "very surprised"). We used a statewide database to ascertain hospitalization during follow-up.
resultsThere were 488 patients (median age 72 years, 51% female, 17% black) with median estimated glomerular filtration rate 22 mL/min/1.73 m2. Over a median follow-up of 2.1 years, the rates of hospitalization per 100 person-years in the respective response groups were 41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34-50), "very surprised"; 65 (95% CI: 55-76), "surprised"; 98 (95% CI: 85-113), "neutral"; 125 (95% CI: 107-144), "not surprised"; and 120 (95% CI: 94-151), "definitely not surprised." In a fully adjusted cumulative probability ordinal regression model for proportion of follow-up time spent hospitalized, patients whose providers indicated that they would be "definitely not surprised" if they died spent a greater proportion of follow-up time hospitalized compared with those whose providers indicated that they would be "very surprised" (odds ratio 2.4, 95% CI: 1.0-5.7). There was a similar association for time to first hospitalization.
conclusionNephrology providers' responses to the surprise question for older patients with advanced NDD-CKD were independently associated with proportion of future time spent hospitalized and time to first hospitalization. Additional studies should examine how to use this information to provide patients with anticipatory guidance on their possible clinical trajectory and to target potentially preventable hospitalizations.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.