ArticleTobacco control2021
Longitudinal evaluation of the impact of standardised packaging and minimum excise tax on tobacco sales and industry revenue in the UK.
Article in Tobacco control, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour.Nature human behaviour · 2024Pooled it
- Assessing the progress in implementing population-based policies to reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 2010-2024.Health policy and planning · 2026Article
- Article
- Content analysis of Dutch newspaper coverage of three tobacco control policies, 2017-2019.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Smoking prevalence following the announcement of tobacco tax increases in England between 2007 and 2019: an interrupted time-series analysis.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2022Article
- Plain packaging on tobacco products in France: Effectiveness on smokers' attitudes one year after implementation.Tobacco induced diseases · 2022Article
- Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013-2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?Tobacco control · 2021Article
- Beyond choice architecture: advancing the science of changing behaviour at scale.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Children of Smoking and Non-Smoking Households' Perceptions of Physical Activity, Cardiorespiratory Fitness, and Exercise.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Consumer Response to Standardized Tobacco Packaging in the United Kingdom: A Synthesis of Evidence from Two Systematic Reviews.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundStandardised packaging for factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO), and a minimum excise tax (MET) were fully implemented in the UK in May 2017 following a 12-month transition period. This paper is the first to examine effects on tobacco sales volumes and company revenues.
methodsAnalysis of UK commercial supermarket and convenience store electronic point of sale data on tobacco sales. FM and RYO products' data (May 2015-April 2018) yielded 107 572 monthly observations. Expected values from additive mixed modelling were used to calculate trends in: (1) volumes of tobacco sold overall, by cigarette type (FM and RYO) and by seven market segments; and (2) company net revenues. A 10-month period (June 2015-March 2016) before the transition to standardised packs was compared with a 10-month period after the introduction of the MET and full implementation of standardised packs (June 2017-March 2018).
resultsPostimplementation, the average monthly decline in stick sales was 6.4 million (95% CI 0.1 million to 12.7 million) sticks faster than prelegislation, almost doubling the speed of decline. Sales of cheap FM brands, previously increasing, plateaued after implementation. Company monthly net revenues declined from a stable £231 million (95% CI £228 million to £234 million), prelegislation, to £198 million (95% CI £191 million to £206 million) in April 2018.
conclusionsThe concurrent introduction of standardised packaging and MET in the UK was associated with significant decline in sales and in tobacco industry revenues, and the end of the previous growth in cheap cigarette brands that appeal to young and price conscious smokers.
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