Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32719076›Full record

ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2020

Long-term BMI change trajectories in Chinese adults and its association with the hazard of type 2 diabetes: evidence from a 20-year China Health and Nutrition Survey.

Baibing Mi, Chenlu Wu, Xiangyu Gao, Wentao Wu, Jiaoyang Du, Yaling Zhao, Duolao Wang, Shaonong Dang, Hong Yan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Baibing MiDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Chenlu WuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Xiangyu GaoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Wentao WuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Jiaoyang DuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Yaling ZhaoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Duolao WangDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Shaonong DangDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China tjdshn@xjtu.edu.cn yanhonge@xjtu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0002-6980-8169
Hong YanDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China tjdshn@xjtu.edu.cn yanhonge@xjtu.edu.cn.

Funding

UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CLINICAL NUTRITION RESEARCH UNITP30DK056350 · NIDDK · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Ian Michael Carroll · 1999 to 2026
$31.6M
MONITORING SOCIAL CHANGE: HEALTH, REPRODUCTION, AGINGR01HD030880 · NICHD · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI ADAIR, LINDA S, POPKIN, BARRY M · 1994 to 2024
$27.0M
CHILD HEALTH EFFECTS OF RAPID SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGER01HD038700 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI POPKIN, BARRY M · 2000 to 2004
$1.5M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD030880NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD038700NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK056350
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionTo investigate the relationship between long-term change trajectory in body mass index (BMI) and the hazard of type 2 diabetes among Chinese adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsData were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Type 2 diabetes was reported by participants themselves in each survey wave. The duration of follow-up was defined as the period from the first visit to the first time self-reported type 2 diabetes, death, or other loss to follow-up from CHNS. The patterns of change trajectories in BMI were derived by latent class trajectory analysis method. The Fine and Gray regression model was used to estimate HRs with corresponding 95% CIs for type 2 diabetes.

resultsFour patterns of the trajectories of change in BMI were identified among Chinese adults, 42.7% of participants had stable BMI change, 40.8% for moderate BMI gain, 8.9% for substantial BMI gain and 7.7% for weight loss. During the follow-up with mean 11.2 years (158 637 person-years contributed by 14 185 participants), 498 people with type 2 diabetes (3.7%) occurred. Risk of type 2 diabetes was increased by 47% among people who gained BMI more substantially and rapidly (HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.02, p=0.016) and increased by 20% among those in people with the moderate BMI gain (HR: 1.20, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.48, p=0.078), compared with those with stable BMI change.

conclusionsLong-term substantial gain of BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the Chinese adults.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdultBody Mass IndexChinaHumansNutrition SurveysWeight LossBMIChineselongitudinal studytype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID32719076
PMCPMC7389517

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.