Observational studyThe Lancet. Global health2020
Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014-17.
Observational study in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Ultra processed foods and their inputs increasingly dominate New Zealand's food and beverage imports: a retrospective analysis.Globalization and health · 2026Article
- Trade, investment and nutrition: lessons from the Canadian case for food systems governance.Public health nutrition · 2026Article
- Monitoring the impacts of international trade and investment agreements on food environments: a Canadian case study.Public health nutrition · 2026Article
- Maternal Mental Health and Child Dietary Diversity in Rural Kenya: Findings From a Pooled Analysis of 2 Baseline Studies.Current developments in nutrition · 2025Article
- Food Insecurity Is Associated With Dysfunctional Eating Behaviors Among Adults in Puerto Rico.Journal of nutrition education and behavior · 2023Observational
- Food insecurity indicators of 14 OECD countries in a health economics aspect: A comparative analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19, Trade, and Health: This Changes Everything? Comment on "What Generates Attention to Health in Trade Policy-Making? Lessons From Success in Tobacco Control and Access to Medicines: A Qualitative Study of Australia and the (Comprehensive and Progressive) Trans-Pacific Partnership".International journal of health policy and management · 2022Article
- The Measurement of Food Insecurity in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- How supportive is the global food supply of food-based dietary guidelines? A descriptive time series analysis of food supply alignment from 1961 to 2013.SSM - population health · 2021Article
- Brexit and trade policy: an analysis of the governance of UK trade policy and what it means for health and social justice.Globalization and health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 and the collapse of global trade: building an effective public health response.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Review
- Winners and losers in the global trade in food.The Lancet. Global health · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies might increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the association between liberal trade policies and food insecurity at the individual level, and whether this association varies across country-income and household-income groups.
methodsFor this observational analysis, we combined individual-level data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country's trade policy score and the probability of individuals reporting moderate-severe or severe food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We controlled for multiple covariates, including gross domestic product, democratisation level, and population size. Additionally, we examined heterogeneity by country and household income.
resultsOur sample comprised 460 102 individuals in 132 countries for the period of 2014-17. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate-severe or severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes higher than US$25 430 per person per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07% (95% CI -0·10 to -0·04) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (<$450 per person per year) in low-income countries, a unit increase in the trade policy index was associated with a 0·35% (0·06 to 0·60) increase in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity.
interpretationThe relationship between liberal trade policy and food insecurity varied across countries and households. Liberal trade policy was predominantly associated with lower food insecurity in high-income countries but corresponded to increased food insecurity among the world's poorest households in low-income countries.
fundingJoseph Rowntree Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.