ArticleWorld journal of surgery2020
Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.
Article in World journal of surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Physiological Emergency Surgery Acuity Score Predicts Mortality and Anastomotic Leak in Emergency Laparotomy: An External Validation Study.World journal of surgery · 2026Article
- Risk Factors Associated with Complications and Early Mortality of Hip Fracture Surgery in Elderly Patients.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Can the frailty score independently predict postoperative morbidity in patients with colorectal cancer? A prospective observational study.BMC geriatrics · 2026Observational
- SurgiCut-AI: an AI-driven tool for predicting surgical site infections following ventral hernia repair using pre- and intra-operative parameters.Hernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery · 2026Article
- Outcome prediction after emergency cholecystectomy: performance evaluation of the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator and the 5-item modified frailty index.Updates in surgery · 2025Article
- Use of risk assessment tools in emergency general surgery: a cross-sectional survey of surgeons and trainees.Updates in surgery · 2025Article
- Accuracy of the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and CRP/Albumin Ratio in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Hip Fracture Surgery: A Lithuanian Single-Centre Prospective Study.Geriatric orthopaedic surgery & rehabilitation · 2025Article
- Advanced Non-linear Modeling and Explainable Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting 30-Day Complications in Bariatric Surgery: A Single-Center Study.Obesity surgery · 2024Article
- Therapy-Associated Polyposis, Late Presentation of a Childhood-Treated Disease.ACG case reports journal · 2024Article
- Utility of Surgical Risk Calculators in Spine Surgery in Patients Aged Over 80 Years: Analysis of SpineSage and ACS NSQIP.Global spine journal · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Patients with Hepatic Metastases from Colorectal Cancer Undergoing Liver Resection.Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract · 2023Article
- A Practical Approach to Predicting Surgical Site Infection Risk Among Patients Before Leaving the Operating Room.Cureus · 2023Article
- Current use of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator in academic surgery: a mixed-methods study.Surgery in practice and science · 2023Article
- Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer-External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Forecasting outcomes after cholecystectomy in octogenarian patients.Surgical endoscopy · 2022Article
- Implementation of a machine learning application in preoperative risk assessment for hip repair surgery.BMC anesthesiology · 2022Article
- Evaluating Discrimination of ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Thyroidectomy Patients.The Journal of surgical research · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting.
methodsFrom January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis (n = 103), appendicitis (n = 83), gastrointestinal perforation (n = 45), and intestinal obstruction (n = 86). Patients' personal risk was obtained and divided by the average risk to calculate a personal risk ratio (RR). Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) and Brier score were measured to assess both the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model.
resultsThe AUC was 0.772 (95%CI 0.722-0.817, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.161) for serious complications, 0.887 (95%CI 0.847-0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.072) for death, and 0.887 (95%CI 0.847-0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.106) for discharge to nursing or rehab facility. Pneumonia, cardiac complications, and surgical site infection presented an AUC of 0.794 (95%CI 0.746-0.838, p < 0.001; Brier 0.103), 0.836 (95%CI 0.790-0.875, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.081), and 0.729 (95%CI 0.676-0.777, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.131), respectively. A RR > 1.24, RR > 1.52, and RR > 2.63 predicted the onset of serious complications (sensitivity = 60.47%, specificity = 64.07%; NPV = 81%), death (sensitivity = 82.76%, specificity = 62.85%; NPV = 97%), and discharge to nursing or rehab facility (sensitivity = 80.00%, specificity = 69.12%; NPV = 95%), respectively.
conclusionsThe calculator appears to be accurate in predicting adverse postoperative outcomes in our emergency setting. A RR cutoff provides a much more practical method to forecast the onset of a specific type of complication in a single patient.
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