ArticlePloS one2020
Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 89 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Optimizing vaccine site locations while considering travel inconvenience and public health outcomes.Health care management science · 2026Article
- Optimizing vaccination strategies under uncertainty to prevent epidemics.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Studying Disease Reinfection Rates, Vaccine Efficacy, and the Timing of Vaccine Rollout in the Context of Infectious Diseases: A COVID-19 Case Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Effect of vaccination patterns and vaccination rates on the spread and mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.Health policy and technology · 2023Article
- The effect of changing COVID-19 restrictions on the transmission rate in a veterinary clinic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa.PloS one · 2023Article
- Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal.Vaccine · 2022Article
- A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Cochleovestibular findings linked to COVID-19: A scoping review for clinical care planning in South Africa.The South African journal of communication disorders = Die Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir Kommunikasieafwykings · 2022Article
- Application of optimal control to the dynamics of COVID-19 disease in South Africa.Scientific African · 2022Article
- Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A Hypothesis-Free Bridging of Disease Dynamics and Non-pharmaceutical Policies.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Vaccination-Related Sentiments Analysis: A Case Study Using Worldwide Twitter Dataset.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Examining Type 1 Diabetes Mathematical Models Using Experimental Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Performance of the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG serological assay in South African 2 patients.PloS one · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The emergence and fast global spread of COVID-19 has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the extent of disease severity is not yet clear. We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. We also estimated the percentage reduction in effective contacts due to the social distancing measures implemented. Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83-3.33). A vaccine with 70% efficacy had the capacity to contain COVID-19 outbreak but at very higher vaccination coverage 94.44% (95% Crl 92.44-99.92%) with a vaccine of 100% efficacy requiring 66.10% (95% Crl 64.72-69.95%) coverage. Social distancing measures put in place have so far reduced the number of social contacts by 80.31% (95% Crl 79.76-80.85%). These findings suggest that a highly efficacious vaccine would have been required to contain COVID-19 in South Africa. Therefore, the current social distancing measures to reduce contacts will remain key in controlling the infection in the absence of vaccines and other therapeutics.
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