ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2020
Age-Specific Risk Scores Do Not Improve HIV-1 Prediction Among Women in South Africa.
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Risk prediction models for targeted testing of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: a Systematic Review.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2022Pooled it
- Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Pooled it
- My Way: development and preliminary evaluation of a novel delivery system for PrEP and other sexual health needs of young women in Western Kenya.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Trial
- Natural Language Processing Analysis of WhatsApp Messages to Identify Unrecognized HIV Prevention Needs Among Young Women in Kenya.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Patterns of Sexual Behaviors and Sexual Partner Characteristics as Predictors of Perceived HIV Risk and HIV Status Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Kenya.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Pharmacological markers of HIV prevention for oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men.Nature communications · 2026Article
- '…it helps me to be able to do the right thing …': pilot of a waiting area chatbot to enhance self-assessment of HIV vulnerability and motivation for PrEP use in Nigeria.BMJ digital health & AI · 2026Article
- Diagnostic performance of HIV risk assessment tools for identifying pre-exposure prophylaxis candidates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Triaging Clients at Risk of Disengagement from HIV Care: Application of a Predictive Model to Clinical Trial Data in South Africa.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Age-Restriction of a Validated Risk Scoring Tool Better Predicts HIV Acquisition in South African Women: CAPRISA 004.AIDS and behavior · 2022Article
- Predicting the Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- HIV prevention for the next decade: Appropriate, person-centred, prioritised, effective, combination prevention.PLoS medicine · 2022Article
- Ring-ing in the Future: Participant and Male Partner Perspectives Regarding Future Use of the Dapivirine Vaginal Ring for HIV Prevention.AIDS and behavior · 2022Article
- The case for prevention - Primary HIV prevention in the era of universal test and treat: A mathematical modeling study.EClinicalMedicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
21 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHIV-1 risk scoring tools could help target provision of prevention modalities such as pre-exposure prophylaxis. Recent research suggests that risk scores for women aged 18-45 may not predict risk well among young women aged 18-24. We evaluated the predictive performance of age-specific risk scores compared with the existing non-age-specific VOICE risk score, developed for women aged 18-45.
methodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of the Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes Trial to develop and internally validate HIV-1 risk scores for women aged 18-24 and 25-35 in South Africa. Candidate predictors included baseline demographic, clinical, behavioral, and contextual characteristics readily available in clinical settings. The VOICE risk score was applied to women aged 18-35. We evaluated predictive performance of each risk score by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
resultsPredictive performance of all risk scores was moderate, with AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) among women aged 18-24, 0.68 (0.62 to 0.73) among those aged 25-35, and 0.61 (0.58 to 0.65) for the VOICE risk score applied to women aged 18-35; The AUC was similar in internal validation. Among women aged 18-24, HIV-1 incidence was high even at low risk scores, at 3.9 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval: 3.2 to 4.7).
conclusionsAll risk scores were moderately predictive of HIV-1 acquisition, and age-specific risk scores performed only marginally better than the VOICE non-age-specific risk score. Approaches for targeted pre-exposure prophylaxis provision to women in South Africa may require more extensive data than are currently available to improve prediction.
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