Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32699008›Full record

Observational studyBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2020

State handgun purchase age minimums in the US and adolescent suicide rates: regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences analyses.

Julia Raifman, Elysia Larson, Colleen L Barry, Michael Siegel, Michael Ulrich, Anita Knopov, Sandro Galea

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Julia RaifmanDepartment of Health Law, Policy, and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA jraifman@bu.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-6968-658X
Elysia LarsonHarvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Colleen L BarryJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Michael SiegelBoston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Michael UlrichBoston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Anita KnopovBrown University Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, RI, USA.
Sandro GaleaBoston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo evaluate the association between US state policies that establish age 18 or 21 years as the minimum purchaser age for the sale of handguns and adolescent suicide rate.

designRegression discontinuity and difference-in-differences analyses.

setting46 US states without policy changes between 2001 and 2017; Missouri and South Carolina, which lowered the age for handgun sales in 2007 and 2008, respectively; and West Virginia and Wyoming, which increased the age for handgun sales in 2010.

participantsAdolescents aged 13 to 20 years(554 461 961 from 2001 to 2017) in the regression discontinuity analysis, and adolescents aged 18 to 20 years (168 934 041 from 2002 to 2014) in the main difference-in-differences analysis.

main outcome measureSuicide rate per 100 000 adolescents.

resultsIn the regression discontinuity analysis, state policies that limited the sale of handguns to those aged 18 or older (relative to 21 or older) were associated with an increase in suicide rate among adolescents aged 18 to 20 years equivalent to 344 additional suicides in each state where they were in place between 2001 and 2017. In the difference-in-differences analysis, state policies that limited the sale of handguns to those aged 21 or older were associated with 1.91 fewer suicides per 100 000 adolescents aged 18 to 20 years (95% confidence interval -3.13 to -0.70, permutation adjusted P=0.025). In the difference-in-differences analysis, there were 1.83 fewer firearm related suicides per 100 000 adolescents (-2.66 to -1.00, permutation adjusted P=0.002), with no association between age 21 handgun sales policies and non-firearm related suicides. Separate event study estimates indicated increases in suicide rates in states that lowered the age of handgun sales, with no association in states that increased the age of handgun sales.

conclusionsA clear discontinuity was shown in the suicide rate by age at age 18 in states that limited the sale of handguns to individuals aged 18 or older. State policies to limit the sale of handguns to individuals aged 21 or older were associated with a reduction in suicide rates among adolescents. Increases in suicide rates were observed after states lowered the age of handgun sales, but no effect was found in states that increased the age of handgun sales.

Indexed as

AdolescentAge FactorsCommerceConsumer BehaviorEvaluation Studies as TopicFirearmsHumansMissouriPolicyRegression AnalysisSouth CarolinaSuicideWest VirginiaWyomingYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID32699008
PMCPMC7374798

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.