Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32694309›Full record

ArticleJournal of cataract and refractive surgery2020

COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries.

Shruti Aggarwal, Punya Jain, Amit Jain

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of cataract and refractive surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on glaucoma surgery in German hospitals.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2025
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  9. Could global surgery overcome a decline in surgical cases?Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Shruti AggarwalFrom Cornea and Refractive Surgery, Katzen Eye Institute (Aggarwal), Jain Ventures LLC (P. Jain), and Johns Hopkins University (A. Jain), Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Punya Jain
Amit Jain

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19.

settingMedicare Beneficiaries, United States.

designEpidemiologic modeling.

methodsBaseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions.

resultsAssuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future.

conclusionsSuspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data may aid physicians, payers, and policymakers in planning for postpandemic recovery.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusForecastingModels, StatisticalAgedCataract ExtractionCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Databases, FactualDelivery of Health CareElective Surgical ProceduresFemaleHumansMaleMedicare Part BMonte Carlo MethodPandemics

Identifiers

PMID32694309
PMCPMC7416873

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.