Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32692648›Full record

ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2020

Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA.

Xutong Wang, Remy F Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Michaela Petty, Spencer J Fox, Alison P Galvani, Michael Pignone, S Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
61citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

61 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas.BMC infectious diseases · 2026
    Article
  2. Communicating scientific uncertainty in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: A message experiment.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Retrospective Analysis of Equity-Based Optimization for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023
    Article
  10. Review
  11. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Quality Education of the Medical Young Generation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Xutong Wang
Remy F Pasco
Zhanwei Du
Michaela Petty
Spencer J Fox
Alison P Galvani
Michael Pignone
S Claiborne Johnston
Lauren Ancel Meyers

Funding

Accelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9M
RFA-IP-22-004, Modeling toolkit to evaluate multifaceted control strategies for seasonal and pandemic influenzaU01IP001136 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.4M
NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001136NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.

Indexed as

Health PolicyHospital Bed CapacityAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolCitiesComputer SimulationCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19ForecastingHealth ServicesHospitalizationHumansInfantcoronaviruscoronavirus diseaseCOVID-19epidemiologyhealthcare demandhospital bed capacitymathematical modelmeasurespandemicsrespiratory infectionsSARS-CoV-2severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2social distancingTexasUnited Statesviruseszoonoses

Identifiers

PMID32692648
PMCPMC7510701

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.