ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2020
Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- SIR+ models: accounting for interaction-dependent disease susceptibility in the planning of public health interventions.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Newspaper coverage on solidarity and personal responsibility in the COVID-19 pandemic: A content analysis from Germany and German-speaking Switzerland.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- The analysis of the characteristics of imported COVID-19 cases from January to April in 2020: a cross-sectional study.Annals of translational medicine · 2022Article
- A Global Sharing Mechanism of Resources: Modeling a Crucial Step in the Fight against Pandemics.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Article
- Infection Prevention Performance among In-Flight Cabin Crew in South Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Variation in Non-external and External Causes of Death in Peru in Relation to the COVID-19 Lockdown.The Yale journal of biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Do as your neighbours do? Assessing the impact of lockdown and reopening on the active COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2021Article
- Long, thin transmission chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 may go undetected for several weeks at low to moderate reproduction numbers: Implications for containment and elimination strategy.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- A metapopulation network model for the spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Case study for Ireland.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Containment strategies for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus: flatten the curve or crush it?European journal of epidemiology · 2020Article
- Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment, elimination and exclusion strategies required to tackle it. Simplified arithmetic models of COVID-19 transmission, control and elimination are presented in user-friendly Shiny and Excel formats that allow non-specialists to explore, query, critique and understand the containment decisions facing their country and the world at large. Although the predictive model is broadly applicable, the simulations presented are based on parameter values representative of the United Republic of Tanzania, which is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response to avert a national catastrophe. The predictions of these models illustrate (1) why ambitious lock-down interventions to
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