Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32690510›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2020

Incremental yield of ECG screening repeated annually over 4 years in an adult Japanese population without prior atrial fibrillation: a retrospective cohort study.

Yoshiki Nagata, Takashi Yamagami, Don Nutbeam, Ben Freedman, Nicole Lowres

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Identifying Demographic Factors Affecting the ECG Duration Collected Using a Single-Lead ECG Patch Device.Annals of noninvasive electrocardiology : the official journal of the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology, Inc · 2025
    Trial
  2. Trial
  3. Quality of life before and after catheter ablation (pulmonary vein isolation) for atrial fibrillation: Results from the Netherlands Heart Registration.Netherlands heart journal : monthly journal of the Netherlands Society of Cardiology and the Netherlands Heart Foundation · 2026
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Early diagnosis and better rhythm management to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 8th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2023
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Yoshiki NagataLaboratory of Preventive Medicine, Hokuriku Health Service Association, Toyama, Japan drnagata@nsknet.or.jp.ORCID 0000-0002-0217-697X
Takashi YamagamiLaboratory of Preventive Medicine, Hokuriku Health Service Association, Toyama, Japan.
Don NutbeamSchool of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Ben FreedmanHeart Research Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Nicole LowresHeart Research Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
The University of Sydney · AUHokuriku Electric Power Company (Japan) · JP

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesInternational guidelines recommend opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation (AF); however, there is no current data to inform how often to repeat screening. We aimed to investigate the incremental annual yield and stroke risk of new AF cases in individuals screened annually over 4 years.

designA retrospective cohort study.

settingHokuriku Health Service Association, Toyama prefecture, Japan.

participantsEmployees and their families receiving annual health examinations from Hokuriku Health Service Association.

interventionEach subject received an annual health examination (including 12-lead ECG) from 2014 to 2017. Only subjects with baseline ECGs in 2012 and/or 2013 were included.

main outcome measuresRates (cases/100 person-years) of new AF identified each year for 4 consecutive years of screening (stratified according to gender and age groups). Calculated stroke risk of new AF cases using modified CHA

conclusionsRepeated annual ECG screening of the same population provides a consistent yield of new AF each year. The majority of new AF (≥65 years) are eligible for anticoagulation for stroke prevention. Although AF prevalence and incidence are lower in Japan than Western countries, 2318 new cases would be identified in Toyama prefecture each year with annual screening, of whom ~927 would have a high stroke risk with a recommendation for OAC therapy.

Indexed as

ElectrocardiographyAdultAgedAnticoagulantsAtrial FibrillationCohort StudiesFemaleHumansIncidenceJapanMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesStrokeAnticoagulantscardiac epidemiologypacing & electrophysiologythromboembolism

Identifiers

PMID32690510
PMCPMC7371218
OpenAlexW3043736202

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.